Migration Policy institute has done a study on the possible effects of Trump’s ban on Family green card issuance for the next 60 days.
It seems that employment-based green cards are going to get the benefit as an estimated 52k family-based green cards might get free in the next 60 days. This simply means that 52K extra green cards would be available for the employment-based category in next fiscal year starting Oct 2020.
This has the potential of moving the Indian and Chinese backlogged queue if USCIS and DHS indeed do try to make an effort to use these Green card numbers instead of just wasting them.
It is possible that USCIS has not published the May visa bulletin as DHS may be busy adjusting their available green card numbers due to US embassy closures which have resulted in an indirect stop on immigrant visas.
With the Current Ban for 60 days and possible extension and if it goes unchallenged in court, the major effects will be seen for people from Asia (India, China, Philippines), Central America (Mexico, Honduras), and Africa.
Will Indian EB2 Dates Move Ahead?
This is too early to predict any changes but the chances are high that EB1, EB2 and EB3 categories might see bigger date movements than normal due to the extra green cards that would be available for use.
We are working on real spillover numbers and their possible effect on Indian and Chinese backlogged queues. We will share once available. Stay tuned.
Greg Siskind, a well-known immigration attorney expects DHS to move the ‘dates of filing’ faster to use the green card numbers that may be spillover to an employment-based category at the start of next fiscal year i.e. Oct 2020.
Another Lawyer, William Stock argues that there aren’t many families in the US that can file an i485 adjustment of status to use these family Green card quota numbers at this time. As per the 2018 DHS data, 94% of family-based green cards were issued outside the USA and only 6 out of 100 are present in the US at the time of their date getting current.
Other lawyers have the opinion that this proclamation seems to be in line with and is possibly motivated by Trump’s idea of making the US immigration system a merit-based one. I don’t necessarily agree even though I have always been in favor of giving green cards based on merit rather than country of birth.
Education and skills-based residency are what Canada and Australia currently offer and make it easy for their economic system as skilled people have better chances of contributing to income taxes. The UK is also gearing up to set up a Merit-based system on the lines of Australian Skill select due to the imminent benefits.