EB2 India Green Card Prediction – Charles Oppenheim (July 2021 Bulletin)

EB2 India Predictions for Green card movement. EB3 will stay ahead of EB2. Both queues may reach 2014 quickly in 2022. Be ready with documents.

Written by AM22Tech Team
  AM22Tech Team    Updated  11 Jun, 21


Good News – Charles Oppenheim has shared in DOS open forum with lawyers that EB2 and EB3 India dates will take extremely long jumps in July 2021 visa bulletin:

EB2 India Final Action: 1 June 2011

EB3 India Final Action: 1 Jan 2013

Stay tuned and we will update this page if we hear more information.

July 2021 Visa Bulletin Predictions

IndiaFinal ActionDate of Filing (Not available to use)
EB1CurrentCurrent
EB21 June 2011 (as per Charles)1 Aug 2011
EB31 Jan 2013 (as per Charles)1 Jan 2014
  • EB2 and EB3 ‘final action’ to move forward.
  • EB2 and EB3 ‘Date of filing’ dates should stay the same and USCIS will most probably keep the ‘DOF filing’ chart closed until Sep 2021.
  • For people whose PD date just got current in the EB2 DOF chart, they should wait to see if USCIS opens this chart for use. The chances are low until Oct 2021 but it is an indication that you should be ready with your i485 documents to file fast preferably in the first week itself.

The estimations are based on the number of i140’s approved during that period and family-based GC spillover of 120k green cards to the employment queue in Oct 2020.

The biggest factor in the predictions is how many people actually file EB2 to EB3 downgrades and how many get their EB3 i140 approved within the next 12 months. Once an i140 is approved, USCIS counts it as a possible candidate and hence has to adjust the Visa bulletin dates accordingly.

All our calculations are based on the fact that at least 50-60% of the EB2 waitlist will convert to EB3 sooner or later using either regular processing or premium processing.

Visa Bulletin Prediction App (Next 12 months)

We have created an artificial intelligence app that tries to count the visa numbers based on publicly available i140 data from USCIS and then mimics the per month visa allocation based on various factors.


Visa Bulletin Predictions App >

This helps us get estimated dates and projected path of VB dates based on spillovers shown as EB2 FAPD (EB2 Final Action prediction) and EB3 FAPD (EB3 Final Action Prediction).

Spillovers happen in this order:

  1. EB4 and EB5 extra green cards are given to EB1.
  2. EB1’s unused GC numbers are given to EB2 ROW (The rest of the world).
  3. EB2’s ROW is shared horizontally with backlogged countries like India and China. The most backlogged country gets the most GCs as per the best understanding.
  4. EB3 ROW is supposed to get unused GC from EB2 which is almost impossible since EB2 India and China have huge backlogs.
  5. EB3 does not spill over to anyone as per our understanding.

In a nutshell, this is the funnel for spillovers within employment based categories:

Unused EB4+EB5 => EB1 ROW => Unused EB1 => EB2 ROW => EB2 Backlogged (more backlogged first) => EB3 ROW => EB3 Backlogged (more backlogged first)

If you want to understand how this whole setup works, head over to HappySchools blog who has explained spillover sharing details within EB categories in a really simple way.

Charles Oppenheim Summary

US department of state has started LIVE YouTube discussions with Charles Oppenheim as a welcome step to keep immigrants informed about what to expect in the visa bulletins.

Charles expects that employment-based (EB) green card categories will receive another set of spillover in Oct 2021 and will be much more than we got in Oct 2020.

  • Charles expects about 290k GC to be available for EB in Oct 2021 which will be a spillover of about 150k GCs.
  • Approx 262k Green cards were made available to the EB category in Oct 2020. A spillover of about 122k GCs.
  • He expects the ‘Date of filling’ dates will be reached in the ‘Final action’ chart by Sep 2021.
  • USCIS tries to use all available GCs as much as possible. Their usage rate is 95% for the EB category which means that only about 5% of the total is wasted every year.


Open video in new Window >

We did witness very strong movement in EB3 India ‘date of filing’ dates during Oct as demand was low for EB3. Now that most and probably 70% of EB2 Indians have filed their downgrade application, the dates of EB2 and EB3 should move forward considerably in the upcoming months.

The most important factor here for EB 2 movement will be the EB1 dates remaining current. EB1 spills over to EB2 and that makes a big difference.

We will keep updating this page with new Charles Oppenheim videos and adjust our predictions based on each new bulletin.

Sep 2021 Prediction (End of fiscal year 2021)

These are the dates that am22tech thinks will be in Sep 2021 visa bulletin based on Artificial Intelligence projections.

IndiaFinal ActionDate of Filing (Not available to use)
EB1CurrentCurrent
EB28 Aug 20111 Nov 2011
EB326 July 20131 Jan 2014

Oct 2021 Prediction (Start of fiscal year 2022)

These are the dates that am22tech thinks will be in Oct 2021 visa bulletin.

Given the current situation of COVID and US embassy closures around the world, the chances are good that more than 150k GC numbers may spill over in 2021. Stay tuned as we update this page regularly.

IndiaFinal ActionDate of Filing (Will be available to use)
EB1CurrentCurrent
EB226 Oct 20111 Jan 2015
EB324 May 20141 Jan 2016

The Indian EB2 and EB3 should see a lot of aggressive movement starting Oct 2021 as all other country queues might be cleared and the chances of Indians getting the most of the spillover are extremely high.

USCIS GC Wastage

David Bier from the CATO institute has projected that USCIS might be on the way to waste most of the Oct 2020 spillover if not all, based on their Oct-Dec 2020 i485 processing data.

This file shows the number of i485 filed in the first quarter of 2021 is about 87k which should include EB2 to EB3 downgrades and the dependent family members.



Although there cannot be any concrete conclusion drawn for the number of EB2 to EB3 downgrades with this raw data but it seems that less than 30% of people have filed their EB2 to EB3 downgrades given the low number of i485s received by USCIS.

i485 approved data USCIS Oct to Dec 2020
i485 approved data USCIS Oct to Dec 2020

Note that our hypothesis can be wrong but the number of i485 applications received is lower than approved i140 in the EB2 category which forces us to think that most people have not jumped on to EB3.

  • There are approximately 192k Indians (including family) people waiting in the EB2 queue from 1 Jan 2011 to 1 Jan 2015. Most of them were expected to file the downgrade as their dates were current in the EB3 DOF chart.
  • It is also possible that since USCIS sent receipts for Oct 2020 filings in Jan 2021, these numbers have not been counted at all in this report. We will update this page once the next quarterly report is shared by USCIS.

If the GC numbers are wasted, it will be inhumane and will affect Indian nationals’ disproportionality as they are the only ones bearing the most backlogged employment-based category at this time.

On the other hand, the State department’s Charles Oppenheim is regularly moving the Visa bulletin ahead hoping that USCIS will be able to use all or most of the spillover. We do not know if USCIS and DOS are talking to each other on monthly updates with respect to how much they can achieve by Sep 2021 end.

As per the law, if USCIS does not use up all GC numbers, they will be wasted and may trigger the slow or retrogression of VB dates for Indians pretty soon.

Lawsuit

The good news is that Greg Siskind is ready to file a lawsuit to avoid this wastage of Green cards just because USCIS does not have the capacity to process them within the given timelines. Our opinion on whether you should join the Green card lawsuit or not.

Positive VB Movements

  • At this time, the USCIS is probably not counting the EB2 to EB3 downgrades that were filed in Oct 2020 since most of their EB3 i140 has not been approved yet.
  • We think that once the EB3 i140 approvals are available, the EB3 queue will slow down and that should start happening from Sep/Oct 2021 visa bulletins keeping in mind the i140 processing time.

Oct 2021 to Sep 2022 will be the golden period and maybe a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for Indians if the spillover happens.

Estimate My Green Card Date

You can estimate your own green card date based on the same AI algorithm which we use for predicting visa bulletins.

  1. Visit the My Green Card Estimate App here.
  2. Enter your country of birth and employment-based GC category. You can leave the options as default.
  3. Click the ‘Estimate My GC Date‘ button and see the visa bulletin that may get you the Green card.
Estimate Indian EB2 green card date with spillover
Estimate Indian EB2 green card date with spillover

This is how the estimated values look like.



This will help you make a decision with respect to filing EB2 to EB3 downgrade and collecting documents for filing i485 if you have a good chance of getting current in near future.

Many people would need the NABC (non-availability of birth certificate) to file the i-485 application and am22tech is helping with it for a small fee.

Use coupon code DWHF5RQ6 to get a $29.99 discount on the am22tech’s NABC certificate service.

Estimate my green card date
Estimate my green card date

Family based to Employment Based Spillover

There is no clear rule which can define how family-based spillovers are divided among employment-based categories from EB1 to EB5.

The best possible explanation that we could find was on this B3 blog based on their understanding of US immigration laws.

But, then the author was not able to draw a concrete picture or a mathematical formula as to how the final numbers are divided and hence has left the readers to read Charles Oppenheim’s mind.

Our app has merged all the green card dates calculation logic and has tried to find a possible path that future visa bulletins will take. This will change with each new visa bulletin as the new data is made available by USCIS.

Normally, if there are Green Cards left in the EB1 category, the spillover to EB2.



If we look at the last couple of year’s data, the EB1 India itself is backlogged thereby leaving EB2 India with just the basic quota of 2,879 green cards per year.

  • If you take an average family size of 3, the total employment-based GC’s would come down to a mere 959.
  • With only 959 Green cards issued every year to EB2 India on average from 2017 to 2020, the GC wait times skyrocketed to 151 years as explained below.
  • Now, those extra 120k green cards are available between Oct 2020 and Sep 2021, EB1 stands to clear its queue and the chances are very good that EB2 + EB3 India will get about 17k extra Green cards each after sharing it with other backlogged countries.

You should be ready to file i-485 documents if the dates move forward quickly as the window might not stay open for long.

EB2 EB3 India i-140 numbers
EB2 EB3 India i-140 numbers

EB2 India Green Card Wait Time

The average waiting time for anyone already in the EB2 Indian queue at least 20 years if their GC date is before Dec 2012 if you ignore the spillover that happened in Oct 2020.

The maximum is expected to be 151 years in EB2 if you file your PERM today and the average is about 40 years for an India-born skilled worker filing their US Green Card PERM.

NOTE: Dependents = Spouse, and Children (less than 21 years of age).

As per USCIS estimates,

  • EB1 dependents = 1.4 of primary.
  • EB2 dependents = primary numbers.
  • EB3 dependents = 1.1 of primary.

EB-1: Extraordinary ability, EB-2: Advanced degrees, EB-3: Bachelor’s degrees

Indian green card queue waiting numbers issued by USCIS.

If the same amount of 2879 Green cards are issued to EB2 India every year from now, which seems like a case without any carryover from other categories, the Indian EB2 skilled worker has a wait of about 151 years.

How to Get Green Card Fast?

Unless the US Immigration law is changed, to remove country-based GC limits with a law like S386, there is no real possibility of any Indian joining the EB2 Green card queue, to get a Green card in his/her lifetime.



#1 US Citizen Child Sponsor

To circumvent this 150-year wait, your Adult US citizen child can sponsor you once he/she turns 21.

This will give you a Green card immediately as there is neither any yearly limit nor any priority date waiting for immediate relatives of US citizens.

#2 EB2 to EB3 Downgrade

India EB2 to EB3 downgrades are possible.




Author

Written by AM22Tech Team
  AM22Tech Team     



Recent discussion on forum

  1. Raj_Dhe
    Raj_Dhe

    hi anil

    my Eb2 PD is june 2010 and i got my EAD last month in EB2.

    Now in this month bulletin the final action dates are moved forward and EB3 final action date is current for my EB2 PD.
    so my current status is EB3 FA date current for my EB2 PD and 5 months behind in EB2 FA date.
    can i downgrade at this moment from eb2 to eb3 while having eb2 EAD in hand? is it a good idea?
    if yes, what is the process and how long it will take?
    please advise


  2. anil_am22
    anil_am22

    I don’t think there is any restriction in filing EB3 i140 at this time as long as your Employer is ready to sponsor it.


  3. bhaskar_mz
    bhaskar_mz

    Hi there,
    My eb2 priority date is August 2015.
    Is there any chance of that being the date of filing in fiscal year 2022, for eb3?
    I am planning to switch job, and the new employer will take time to apply perm. So should I wait in the current job and apply downgrade to eb3 after Oct 2021, if there is any chance?
    Thanks.


  4. Mandeep_Raj
    Mandeep_Raj

    What happens when let’s say EB3 FAD by Sept 21 remains only until 01Dec2012 and doesn’t reach the dates in the filing chart dates, will uscis still move the Dates For Filing chart beyond 01Jan14 in Oct 2021? Won’t the spillover be used to issue GCs to the folks waiting with approved i-485 in the current fiscal year?
    @anil_am22 how does this work? Thanks!


  5. anil_am22
    anil_am22

    The green card will only be issued if the date gets current in FAD.

    If it doesn’t, the pending i485 will stay pending. There is no guarantee of dates movement.

    The last time May 2010 was current was in 2012. Most people filed i485 at that time but then dates moved back and have now reached May 2010 again after about 9 years.

    All this time, those people were just waiting.


  6. Sujeet_Kumar_Singh
    Sujeet_Kumar_Singh

    Also, @anil_am22 , assuming Charlie’s prediction of 135K additional GCs available to EB (spillover from FB) + Eb1 being current + potential EB4 spillovers, what’s your best guestimate of Oct 2021 bulletin for EB2 nd EB3 India? Thanks in advance and I must say your blogs are really helpful.


  7. Mandeep_Raj
    Mandeep_Raj

    @anil_am22 yes, pls respond to Sujeet’s comment when you get a chance. We all want to hear your best estimate of Oct 21 bulletin. Thanks!


  8. SJ60UT
    SJ60UT

    I think @anil_am22 has always been conservative. I like that he is conservative and proven right rather than sounding too ambitious. Honestly, no one knows whats going to happen until Sep 2021.


  9. anil_am22
    anil_am22

    Hi @Mandeep_Raj

    Both Sep 2021 and Oct 2021 visa bulletin estimates are available on this page.

    Please note that these are estimates and can be wrong as pointed by other members that even USCIS does not know the exact numbers.

    So, just use these dates for keeping your i485 documents prepared.

    The dates will change if USCIS does not use the full spillover this year and wastes GC numbers. Nobody can guess that but we have kept a wastage of 10% GCs in calculations even though the 2020 wastage was at 5%.

    This is to make sure that we do a conservative estimate.


  10. Sujeet_Kumar_Singh
    Sujeet_Kumar_Singh

    Its good to be conservative, but I think the hopes are getting up with the US Dept of State Consular Affairs themselves giving a much more positive outlook. This is a direct response from them on their YouTube channel (dated 26 April 2021):

    U.S. Department of State: Consular Affairs

    4 days ago

    Yes, we do expect the India EB-2 preference category to reach the May 2011 Application Filing Date within the next several months. We do not expect the India EB-3 Final Action Date to retrogress, and there is an excellent chance that the January 2014 India EB-3 Application Filing Date will be reached by September.


  11. anil_am22
    anil_am22

    That’s extremely ambitious.


  12. SJ60UT
    SJ60UT

    Your new estimates are highly conservative for Oct 2021. What motivated the change? You are not expecting eb3 to move past Jun 2011?


  13. anil_am22
    anil_am22

    You can try it yourself by adjusting various factors that affect the visa bulletin dates.

    They are now available on this GC estimator app here.

    You will need to enter your PD date and then:

    1. Use default settings or
    2. Change based on your understanding of what will happen in the coming months.

    This will show you the VB predictions as per your selections with the AI algorithm from the app. It tries to mimic the way USCIS allocates GCs between EB2 and EB3.

    This prediction trend will be available for your PD date on the suggestions page once you click ‘estimate my GC date’.

    Scroll down on the estimation results page to see this graph that was generated for your set-up

    This way, you can see the trend based on what you think will happen in Oct 2021 rather than what others believe.


  14. Amit_Pande
    Amit_Pande

    @anil_am22 - It is showing me that by August 2022 the FAD will be current for me. Is that true or can it happen earlier than that? Also if it is showing August 2022 for the FAD to be current, so do you think by October- November 2021 the DOF will be current for me?

    Thanks again!!


  15. Varun_Menon
    Varun_Menon

    @anil_am22
    As per the current predictions do you see these spillovers cause the PD’s to reach 2019 in 2022? If not then at least in the next few years? Or will folks who have PD’s in 2019 and later be waiting again in backlogs once this phase of spill overs are done?


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