EB2 India Green Card Prediction – Charles Oppenheim (Sep 2021 Bulletin)

EB2 India Predictions for Green card movement. EB3 will stay ahead of EB2. EB3 will not reach 2016 in 2022. Be ready with documents.

Written by AM22Tech Team
  AM22Tech Team    Updated  20 Jul, 21


Our AI algorithm has predicted the dates for the next months based on the current visa bulletin.

At this time, we suggest considering the worst-case as the realistic option for planning your next move keeping in mind that USCIS is going to waste more than 100k GC numbers as told by Charlie.

This means that most of the 122k spillover numbers will be lost without any benefit to the Indian backlog at all.

Every 5k wasted GCs add 1 year to waiting time and every Indian will have to wait extra 20 years now! The last ray of hope is the lawsuit being filed by Greg Siskind.

Sep, Oct, Nov 2021 Predictions

Best case means USCIS wastes only less than 10% of Green card numbers. The average scenario is when USCIS will not use at least 25% of green cards.

The worst case is when USCIS will lose 50% of Green card numbers forever.

IndiaFinal ActionDate of Filing (Not available to use)
EB1CurrentCurrent
EB222 Jun 20111 Dec 2011
EB31 Jan 20141 Feb 2014
IndiaFinal ActionDate of Filing (Not available to use)
EB1CurrentCurrent
EB210 Jun 20111 Dec 2011
EB31 Jan 20141 Feb 2014
IndiaFinal ActionDate of Filing (Not available to use)
EB1CurrentCurrent
EB21 Jun 20111 Dec 2011
EB31 Jan 20141 Feb 2014
IndiaFinal ActionDate of Filing (Available to use)
EB1CurrentCurrent
EB21 Jul 20111 Dec 2011
EB31 Feb 20141 Feb 2014
IndiaFinal ActionDate of Filing (Available to use)
EB1CurrentCurrent
EB228 Jun 20111 Dec 2011
EB315 Jan 20141 Feb 2014
IndiaFinal ActionDate of Filing (Available to use)
EB1CurrentCurrent
EB222 Jun 20111 Dec 2011
EB35 Jan 20141 Feb 2014
IndiaFinal ActionDate of Filing (Available to use)
EB1CurrentCurrent
EB21 Sep 20111 Jan 2012
EB31 Mar 20141 Jan 2015
IndiaFinal ActionDate of Filing (Available to use)
EB1CurrentCurrent
EB21 Aug 20111 Dec 2011
EB310 Feb 20141 Dec 2014
IndiaFinal ActionDate of Filing (Available to use)
EB1CurrentCurrent
EB222 Jul 20111 Dec 2011
EB33 Feb 20141 Aug 2014
  • EB2 and EB3 ‘final action’ to move forward.
  • EB2 and EB3 ‘Date of filing’ dates should stay the same and USCIS will most probably keep the ‘DOF filing’ chart closed until Sep 2021.
  • For people whose PD date just got current in the EB2 DOF chart, they should wait to see if USCIS opens this chart for use. The chances are low until Oct 2021 but it is an indication that you should be ready with your i485 documents to file fast preferably in the first week itself.

The estimations are based on the number of i140’s approved during that period and family-based GC spillover of 120k green cards to the employment queue in Oct 2020.

The biggest factor in the predictions is how many people actually file EB2 to EB3 downgrades and how many get their EB3 i140 approved within the next 12 months. Once an i140 is approved, USCIS counts it as a possible candidate and hence has to adjust the Visa bulletin dates accordingly.

All our calculations are based on the fact that at least 50-60% of the EB2 waitlist will convert to EB3 sooner or later using either regular processing or premium processing.

Charles Oppenheim Summary Aug VB Discussion

  • EB3 India Final Action will reach Jan 1, 2014 in Sep 2021 visa bulletin and may move slowly until Jan 2022. The chances of touching 1 Jan 2017 until Sep 2022 are extremely low even in DOF chart. 2016 may be touched based on demand in second half of the year in Date of filing chart.
  • USCIS Wastage – 100k: Charlie says USCIS in on track to waste more than 100k GC numbers. USCIS is approving i485s at an all-time slow pace as per the recent i485 report. This is extremely SAD news.
  • Retrogression: Employment-based dates will not be retrogressed until Sep 2022 as per current information.
  • Spillover 2022: About 290k GC to be available for EB in Oct 2021 which will be a spillover of about 150k GCs. Approx 262k Green cards were made available to the EB category in Oct 2020. A spillover of about 122k GCs.
  • When will Final Action meet Date of Filing? He expects the current ‘Date of filling’ dates will be reached in the ‘Final action’ chart sometime in 2022 probably around Apr 2022. In earlier chats, Charlie had expected them to meet by Sep 2021 but this has changed now since the ‘Date of filing’ has also moved ahead in Aug 2021 bulletin.
  • EB2 and EB3 Movement in 2022: The speed will slow down starting Jan 2022 for both EB2 and EB3 India due to the current demand generated by EB2 to EB3 downgrades.


Open video in new Window >

We did witness very strong movement in EB3 India ‘date of filing’ dates during Oct as demand was low for EB3. Now that most and probably 70% of EB2 Indians have filed their downgrade application, the dates of EB2 and EB3 should move forward considerably in the upcoming months.

The most important factor here for EB2 movement will be the EB1 dates remaining current. EB1 spills over to EB2 and that makes a big difference.

We will keep updating this page with new Charles Oppenheim videos and adjust our predictions based on each new bulletin.

Positive VB Movements

  • At this time, the USCIS is probably not counting the EB2 to EB3 downgrades that were filed in Oct 2020 since most of their EB3 i140 has not been approved yet.
  • We think that once the EB3 i140 approvals are available, the EB3 queue will slow down and that should start happening from Sep/Oct 2021 visa bulletins keeping in mind the i140 processing time.

House Committee Bill to Stop Spillover

A bill to preserve the GC numbers even if the fiscal year (2020 and 2021) end for employment-based, family-based, and Diversity visa lottery was passed by the House Committee on July 13, 2021.

It has both good and bad news for Indians as there will be no spillover in Oct 2022 if it becomes a law!

Visa Bulletin Prediction App (Next 12 months)

We have created an artificial intelligence app that tries to count the visa numbers based on publicly available i140 data from USCIS and then mimics the per month visa allocation based on various factors.


Visa Bulletin Predictions App >

This helps us get estimated dates and projected path of VB dates based on spillovers shown as EB2 FAPD (EB2 Final Action prediction) and EB3 FAPD (EB3 Final Action Prediction).

Spillovers happen in this order:

  1. EB4 and EB5 extra green cards are given to EB1.
  2. EB1’s unused GC numbers are given to EB2 ROW (The rest of the world).
  3. EB2’s ROW is shared horizontally with backlogged countries like India and China. The most backlogged country gets the most GCs as per the best understanding.
  4. EB3 ROW is supposed to get unused GC from EB2 which is almost impossible since EB2 India and China have huge backlogs.
  5. EB3 does not spill over to anyone as per our understanding.

In a nutshell, this is the funnel for spillovers within employment-based categories:

Unused EB4+EB5 => EB1 ROW => Unused EB1 => EB2 ROW => EB2 Backlogged (most backlogged first) => EB3 ROW => EB3 Backlogged (most backlogged first)

If you want to understand how this whole setup works, head over to HappySchools blog who has explained spillover sharing details within EB categories in a really simple way.

Estimate My Green Card Date

You can estimate your own green card date based on the same AI algorithm which we use for predicting visa bulletins.

  1. Visit the My Green Card Estimate App here.
  2. Enter your country of birth and employment-based GC category. You can leave the options as default.
  3. Click the ‘Estimate My GC Date‘ button and see the visa bulletin that may get you the Green card.
Estimate Indian EB2 green card date with spillover
Estimate Indian EB2 green card date with spillover

This is how the estimated values look like.

This will help you make a decision with respect to filing EB2 to EB3 downgrade and collecting documents for filing i485 if you have a good chance of getting current in near future.



Many people would need the NABC (non-availability of birth certificate) to file the i-485 application and am22tech is helping with it for a small fee.

Use coupon code DWHF5RQ6 to get a $29.99 discount on the am22tech’s NABC certificate service.

Estimate my green card date
Estimate my green card date

Family based to Employment Based Spillover

There is no clear rule which can define how family-based spillovers are divided among employment-based categories from EB1 to EB5.

The best possible explanation that we could find was on this B3 blog based on their understanding of US immigration laws.

But, then the author was not able to draw a concrete picture or a mathematical formula as to how the final numbers are divided and hence has left the readers to read Charles Oppenheim’s mind.

Our app has merged all the green card dates calculation logic and has tried to find a possible path that future visa bulletins will take. This will change with each new visa bulletin as the new data is made available by USCIS.

Normally, if there are Green Cards left in the EB1 category, the spillover to EB2.

If we look at the last couple of year’s data, the EB1 India itself is backlogged thereby leaving EB2 India with just the basic quota of 2,879 green cards per year.

  • If you take an average family size of 3, the total employment-based GC’s would come down to a mere 959.
  • With only 959 Green cards issued every year to EB2 India on average from 2017 to 2020, the GC wait times skyrocketed to 151 years as explained below.
  • Now, those extra 120k green cards are available between Oct 2020 and Sep 2021, EB1 stands to clear its queue and the chances are very good that EB2 + EB3 India will get about 17k extra Green cards each after sharing it with other backlogged countries.

You should be ready to file i-485 documents if the dates move forward quickly as the window might not stay open for long.



EB2 EB3 India i-140 numbers
EB2 EB3 India i-140 numbers

EB2 India Green Card Wait Time

The average waiting time for anyone already in the EB2 Indian queue at least 20 years if their GC date is before Dec 2012 if you ignore the spillover that happened in Oct 2020.

The maximum is expected to be 151 years in EB2 if you file your PERM today and the average is about 40 years for an India-born skilled worker filing their US Green Card PERM.

NOTE: Dependents = Spouse, and Children (less than 21 years of age).

As per USCIS estimates,

  • EB1 dependents = 1.4 of primary.
  • EB2 dependents = primary numbers.
  • EB3 dependents = 1.1 of primary.

EB-1: Extraordinary ability, EB-2: Advanced degrees, EB-3: Bachelor’s degrees

Indian green card queue waiting numbers issued by USCIS.

If the same amount of 2879 Green cards are issued to EB2 India every year from now, which seems like a case without any carryover from other categories, the Indian EB2 skilled worker has a wait of about 151 years.

How to Get Green Card Fast?

Unless the US Immigration law is changed, to remove country-based GC limits with a law like S386, there is no real possibility of any Indian joining the EB2 Green card queue, to get a Green card in his/her lifetime.



#1 US Citizen Child Sponsor

To circumvent this 150-year wait, your Adult US citizen child can sponsor you once he/she turns 21.

This will give you a Green card immediately as there is neither any yearly limit nor any priority date waiting for immediate relatives of US citizens.

#2 EB2 to EB3 Downgrade

India EB2 to EB3 downgrades are possible.




Author

Written by AM22Tech Team
  AM22Tech Team     



Recent discussion on forum

  1. Raj_Dhe
    Raj_Dhe

    hi anil

    my Eb2 PD is june 2010 and i got my EAD last month in EB2.

    Now in this month bulletin the final action dates are moved forward and EB3 final action date is current for my EB2 PD.
    so my current status is EB3 FA date current for my EB2 PD and 5 months behind in EB2 FA date.
    can i downgrade at this moment from eb2 to eb3 while having eb2 EAD in hand? is it a good idea?
    if yes, what is the process and how long it will take?
    please advise


  2. anil_am22
    anil_am22

    I don’t think there is any restriction in filing EB3 i140 at this time as long as your Employer is ready to sponsor it.


  3. bhaskar_mz
    bhaskar_mz

    Hi there,
    My eb2 priority date is August 2015.
    Is there any chance of that being the date of filing in fiscal year 2022, for eb3?
    I am planning to switch job, and the new employer will take time to apply perm. So should I wait in the current job and apply downgrade to eb3 after Oct 2021, if there is any chance?
    Thanks.


  4. Mandeep_Raj
    Mandeep_Raj

    If I were you, i would wait. Don’t miss the boat when it comes onshore on Oct 21.


  5. Mandeep_Raj
    Mandeep_Raj

    What happens when let’s say EB3 FAD by Sept 21 remains only until 01Dec2012 and doesn’t reach the dates in the filing chart dates, will uscis still move the Dates For Filing chart beyond 01Jan14 in Oct 2021? Won’t the spillover be used to issue GCs to the folks waiting with approved i-485 in the current fiscal year?
    @anil_am22 how does this work? Thanks!


  6. anil_am22
    anil_am22

    The green card will only be issued if the date gets current in FAD.

    If it doesn’t, the pending i485 will stay pending. There is no guarantee of dates movement.

    The last time May 2010 was current was in 2012. Most people filed i485 at that time but then dates moved back and have now reached May 2010 again after about 9 years.

    All this time, those people were just waiting.


  7. Sujeet_Kumar_Singh
    Sujeet_Kumar_Singh

    Also, @anil_am22 , assuming Charlie’s prediction of 135K additional GCs available to EB (spillover from FB) + Eb1 being current + potential EB4 spillovers, what’s your best guestimate of Oct 2021 bulletin for EB2 nd EB3 India? Thanks in advance and I must say your blogs are really helpful.


  8. Mandeep_Raj
    Mandeep_Raj

    @anil_am22 yes, pls respond to Sujeet’s comment when you get a chance. We all want to hear your best estimate of Oct 21 bulletin. Thanks!


  9. SJ60UT
    SJ60UT

    I think @anil_am22 has always been conservative. I like that he is conservative and proven right rather than sounding too ambitious. Honestly, no one knows whats going to happen until Sep 2021.


  10. anil_am22
    anil_am22

    Hi @Mandeep_Raj

    Both Sep 2021 and Oct 2021 visa bulletin estimates are available on this page.

    Please note that these are estimates and can be wrong as pointed by other members that even USCIS does not know the exact numbers.

    So, just use these dates for keeping your i485 documents prepared.

    The dates will change if USCIS does not use the full spillover this year and wastes GC numbers. Nobody can guess that but we have kept a wastage of 10% GCs in calculations even though the 2020 wastage was at 5%.

    This is to make sure that we do a conservative estimate.


  11. Abhishek_Sengupta
    Abhishek_Sengupta

    hi ,

    Is there a chance of May 2018 PD being current in Filling date chart for Oct 2021 bulletin. I am asking as i want to change jobs and don’t want to be left in lurch as dates are being moved.


  12. anil_am22
    anil_am22

    That’s extremely ambitious.


  13. SJ60UT
    SJ60UT

    Your new estimates are highly conservative for Oct 2021. What motivated the change? You are not expecting eb3 to move past Jun 2011?


  14. anil_am22
    anil_am22

    You can try it yourself by adjusting various factors that affect the visa bulletin dates.

    They are now available on this GC estimator app here.

    You will need to enter your PD date and then:

    1. Use default settings or
    2. Change based on your understanding of what will happen in the coming months.

    This will show you the VB predictions as per your selections with the AI algorithm from the app. It tries to mimic the way USCIS allocates GCs between EB2 and EB3.

    This prediction trend will be available for your PD date on the suggestions page once you click ‘estimate my GC date’.

    Scroll down on the estimation results page to see this graph that was generated for your set-up

    This way, you can see the trend based on what you think will happen in Oct 2021 rather than what others believe.


  15. Varun_Menon
    Varun_Menon

    @anil_am22
    As per the current predictions do you see these spillovers cause the PD’s to reach 2019 in 2022? If not then at least in the next few years? Or will folks who have PD’s in 2019 and later be waiting again in backlogs once this phase of spill overs are done?


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