EB2 India Green Card Prediction (Oct 2020 Bulletin)

EB2 India Predictions for Green card is average 20 yrs, worst case 150 yrs wait time. 3k GCs are issued to EB2 India every year counting each family member separately person.

Anil Gupta
  By Anil Gupta    Updated  9 Sep, 20

Attorney Greg Siskind has reported that the State Department may use the family-based Green card number spillover to the Employment-based category starting Oct 2020 visa bulletin.

If this happens, the chances of Indian and Chinese EB2 and EB3 queue to move forward quickly are very good.

This has the potential of adding 17k employment green card numbers to each country’s queue by way of spillover (as per my opinion):

IndiaFinal ActionDate of Filing
EB2Sep 2010Jan 2011
EB3Jan 2011Mar 2011
  • It may move the Indian EB-1 to current in the ‘final action’ chart.
  • Advancing Indian EB-2 to Jan 2011 in ‘Date of filing chart’ and Sep 2010 in ‘Final Action’ chart’ by conservative estimates.
  • Indian EB-3 to Mar 2011 in ‘Date of filing chart’ and Jan 2011 in Final Action queue.

You should be ready to file i485 documents if the dates move forward quickly as the window might not stay open for long. Here is the app that can help you generate your i485 document checklist easily.

As per Greg’s tweet, an extra 110k GC numbers should be available for EB categories due to Trump’s travel ban.

Emily Neumann from Reddy n Neumann Law group shares her opinion about the employment-based green card movement after the recent Coronavirus closures and the possible effects of family-based green card spillover to employment-based GC queues:

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EB2 India Green Card Wait Time

If your employment-based green card priority date is July 2009, you have already waited for close to 10 years at this time. The date is NOT expected to be current anytime in near 2-3 years.

This makes the waiting time for anyone already in the EB2 Indian queue at-least 20 years.

  • The maximum is expected to be 151 years and
  • the average is about 40 years for an India born skilled worker filing their US Green Card PERM today.

Indians waiting for GC Priority Date

India (2019)EB-1EB-2EB-3
GC Issued 201713,0822,8796,641
Projected Wait6 Yrs151 Yrs17 Yrs

NOTE: Dependents = Spouse, and Children (less than 21 years of age).

As per USCIS estimates,

  • EB1 dependents = 1.4 of primary.
  • EB2 dependents = primary numbers.
  • EB3 dependents = 1.1 of primary.

EB-1: Extraordinary ability, EB-2: Advanced degrees, EB-3: Bachelor’s degrees

Indian green card queue waiting numbers issued by USCIS.

If the same amount of 2879 Green cards are issued to EB2 India every year from now, which seems like a case without any carryover from other categories, the Indian EB2 skilled worker has a wait of about 151 years.

433,368/2,879 = 151 years

Indian EB2 green card wait 151 years

Indian EB2 green card wait 151 years

How to Get Green Card Fast?

Unless the US Immigration law is changed, to remove country based GC limits with a law like S386, there is no real possibility of any Indian joining the EB2 Green card queue, to get a Green card in his/her lifetime.

#1 US Citizen Child Sponsor

To circumvent this 150-year wait, your Adult US citizen child can sponsor you once he/she turns 21.

This will give you a Green card immediately as there is neither any yearly limit nor any priority date waiting for immediate relatives of US citizens.

#2 EB2 to EB3 Downgrade

India EB2 to EB3 downgrades are possible.

I suggest to file a downgrade if:

  • Your EB2 PD date is current in EB3 ‘Final Action’ Chart.
  • Wait if your EB2 PD date is current in the EB3 ‘Date of filing’ chart.

PERM Filings Increasing

The PERM filings are stuffing the already backlogged Indian EB2 Green Card queue.

Normally, if there are Green Cards left in the EB1 category, they spill over to EB2. But, with the current trend where EB1 itself is backlogged, EB2 India is just left with 2,879.

To add salt to the misery, each employment-based green card is counted separately for each H1B or any other immigrant family member.

This means that if you filed Employment based GC, your dependent wife, your dependent kid will be counted too in the EB2 number 2879.

  • If you take an average family size of 3, the total employment-based GC’s would come down to a mere 959.
  • With only 959 Green cards issued every year to EB2 India in 2018 and onwards, do you think that you will ever get to see that prized card in your lifetime?

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This happens due to the EB3 to EB2 upgrades every year.

EB3 becomes eligible for upgrade after 5 years of work experience.

India Green Card backlog Survey

EB2 is the most preferred category for Indian H1B workers to file Green Card.

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Anil Gupta
  By Anil Gupta           

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