EB2 India Predictions – 20 years average wait time, 151 years worst case

Anil Gupta  20 Mar, 19      82  USA

EB2 Priority Date April 2019 – Employment Based

India (Mar vs Apr)EB-1EB-2EB-3
  Final Action (FA)22 Feb 17
+0 days
12 Apr 09
+3 days
22 Jun 09
+1 month
  Date of Filing1 Oct 17
No change
1 Jun 09
No change
1 Apr 10
No change

Source: Mar 2019 Visa Bulletin

April 2019 Visa Bulletin Prediction

IndiaEB-1EB-2EB-3
Apr 2019 PredictionFA date will move ahead by 1 month.FA date expected to move ahead by 6 daysFA date to stay same as Mar 2019 Visa Bulletin
Mar 2019 PredictionNot expected to get current till June 2019 –

Prediction TRUE

FA date expected to move ahead by 7 days-

We estimated 7 days but actual move only 3 days. Pretty close!

FA date to stay same –

Actual date moved 1 month. Our prediction proved bad!

Feb 2019 PredictionNot expected to get current till June 2019 – Prediction TRUEExpected to move FA date to 8 Apr 09 – Actual date pretty close to our predictionExpected to move FA date to 1 Apr 09 – Actual date surpassed our prediction!

USCIS has stopped the use of ‘Date of filing’ chart in February 2019 Visa Bulletin.

EB2 India Predictions Green Card Wait Time

If your employment based green card priority date is July 2009, you have already waited for close to 10 years at this time. The date is NOT expected to be current anytime in near 2-3 years.

This makes the waiting time for anyone already in the EB2 Indian queue at-least 20 years. The maximum is expected to be 151 years and average is about 40 years for an India born skilled worker filing their US Green Card PERMtoday in 2018.

Indians waiting for GC Priority Date in 2019

IndiaEB-1EB-2EB-3
Primary34,824216,68454,892
Dependents48,754216,68460,381
Total83,578433,368115,273
GC Issued 201713,0822,8796,641
Projected Wait6 Yrs151 Yrs17 Yrs

NOTE: Dependents = Spouse and Children (less than 21 years age). As per USCIS estimates, EB1 dependents = 1.4 of primary. EB2 dependents = primary numbers, EB3 dependents = 1.1 of primary.

EB-1: Extraordinary ability, EB-2: Advanced degrees, EB-3: Bachelor’s degrees

Source USCIS in May 2018 and travel.state.gov.

Indian green card queue waiting numbers issued by USCIS

Indian green card queue waiting numbers issued by USCIS If the same amount of 2879 Green cards are issued to EB2 India every year from now, which seems like a case without any carryover form other categories, the Indian EB2 skilled worker has a wait of about 151 years (433,368/2,879 = 151 years).

Related: Current USCIS H1B processing time – Updated Daily

Indian EB2 green card wait 151 years Indian EB2 green card wait 151 years

H1B Green card with US born citizen Kid?

Unless the US Immigration law is changed, to remove country based GC limits with law like HR 392, there is NO real possibility of any Indian joining the EB2 Green card queue, to get Green card in his/her lifetime.

To circumvent this 150 year wait, your Adult US citizen child can sponsor you once he/she turns 21. This will give you Green card immediately as there is neither any yearly limit nor any priority date waiting for immediate relatives of US citizens.

India EB2 to EB3 downgrades possible With EB3 Indian GC queue moving ahead faster than EB2 starting October 2018 visa bulletin, the chances are very high that EB2s will start jumping the ship to EB3 as has been the case with Chinese Queue.

The same EB3 people who moved from EB3 to EB2 to get faster green card will see downward movement now. The US immigration law is crazy!

EB2 Indian can downgrade to EB3 easily.

PERM filings are increasing Year on Year

The PERM filings are stuffing the already backlogged Indian EB2 Green Card queue. Normally, if there are Green Cards left in EB1 category, they spill over to EB2. But, with current trend where EB1 itself is backlogged, EB2 India is just left with 2,879 (as per report for FY 2017).

To add salt to the misery, each employment based green card is counted separately for each H1B or any other immigrant family member.
This means that if you filed Employment based GC, your dependent wife, your dependent kid will be counted too in the EB2 number 2879.

If you take an average family size of 3, the total employment based GC’s would come down to mere 959 !!! With only 959 Green cards issued every year to EB2 India in 2018, do you think that you will ever get to see that prized card in your life time?

This happens due to the EB3 to EB2 upgrades every year. EB3 becomes eligible for upgrade after 5 years of work experience.

EB2 India Predictions Green card is 20 to 70 years
EB2 India Predictions Green card is 20 to 70 years

India Green Card backlog Survey

EB2 is the most preferred category for Indian H1B workers to file Green Card.

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   Read all 82 Q & A

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  1. puneetbhagat   19 Mar, 19 at 8:53 pm

    Hi @spot_anil_gupta:disqus. My PD date is Sep 2009, EB2 India. My EB2 I-140 is from a previous employer and based on your article to downgrade from EB2 to EB3 with the current employer will require the new EB3 PERM and file a new I140 with the EB3 category. Since PERM process will take its own time, would you recommend starting the process now or wait for EB3 to be current for my PD? Or do you believe with EB2 to EB3 downgrades in general, EB2 should be current for Sep 2009 sooner than new PERM timeline? Please advise.

    Also, do you see any downsides of downgrading from EB2 to EB3 on H1B extensions or EAD/AP card extensions using EB2 application?

    • Anil Gupta   19 Mar, 19 at 9:31 pm

      Haven’t your current employer filed PERM and i140 for you in EB2 yet?
      If not, then it is a good idea to at-least start the PERM process.

      • puneetbhagat   19 Mar, 19 at 10:20 pm

        Sorry that I was not clear about the PERM and I140 in my initial post. I had my I485 filed with previous employer so new one only had to do AC21. My question was around filing new PERM for EB3 with new company to downgrade from EB2, as the EB2 is from previous employer and requires a new PERM.

        So going back to my original question – would you recommend initiating PERM for EB3? Also, do you see any downside of downgrading to EB3 on my current H1B or EAD renewal?

        • Anil Gupta   20 Mar, 19 at 8:12 am

          I do not see any downside except the cost of filing. I have covered other EB2 to EB3 scenarios here.

          • puneetbhagat   20 Mar, 19 at 11:34 am

            Thanks @spot_anil_gupta:disqus. I am exploring that option with my attorney as well. As far the timeline for GC EB2 India Sep 2009 date to be current, what is your take on that? With the downgrades from EB2 to EB3 in general, would the EB2 not benefit and hopefully EB2 dates should progress at some point.

            • Anil Gupta   20 Mar, 19 at 5:25 pm

              Ya..EB2 should progress but it will still be slow and might take about 12+ months.


  2. Hi Anil , Firstly thank you for your time to answer the questions .
    Question – PD Date – EB2 -India -Nov 2009
    If EB3 India moves up to Nov 2009 before EB2 India , we plan to concurrently file a downgrade. Are there any disadvantages to downgrading in terms of denial or rejection? In an ideal scenario we can provide a reason for upgrade.Can we say that we are downgrading to speed up GC process ? Is that an acceptable answer ?(During an Interview)

    Also If EB3 downgrade for some reason takes a wrong turn, will it impact the existing EB2 I 140 ?


  3. Hi Anil

    My spouse’s priority date is 12th Nov 2009(EB2 India) , and I am on H4 EAD . Both of us work and current extension is valid until June 2020 . We also own an LLC which was opened on H4 EAD . We are unable to decide the downgrade to EB3 option. Few questions around it –

    1. DF chart for EB3 India moved to April 2010 . USCIS ,as I understand tells us if that chart can be used to file I-485 . Considering our scenario , what are the chances that we will at-least get an EAD if we downgrade to EB3 ?

    2 . In case we don’t get an EAD before June 2020 , do we have to dissolve the LLC ?

    3. From status point of view , is it better to just stick to EB2 and wait for the wonder to happen 🙂 ?

    Appreciate your inputs .Thank you!

    • Anil Gupta   17 Mar, 19 at 3:10 am

      “Date of filing” chart was open until Jan 2019 for use. If you did not file your EB3 i485 already, you have missed the chance. You cannot file it now until the DF chart opens again.

      You can file for EB2 to EB3 downgrade right now or wait for PD date to get current in Final action date chart and then file EB3 i140 + i485 concurrently.
      My suggestion is to wait and file concurrently.

  4. Indian Joker   16 Mar, 19 at 4:33 am

    Anil, you had predicted that EB-1 filling date will move forward by a month in April 2019 but it has not. 1) When do you foresee it moving to Dec 2018 (which is my PD) at least? 2) Can I apply for an EAD/AP along with my I-485? How long does it take for this EAD/AP to be processed?


  5. Hi Anil

    My spouse’s priority date is 19th Nov 2009, and I am on H4 EAD, what do you thing when the date will be current for GC, He already got 5 times H1B extension and woking in Sanofi ( Big Pharma company), do you thing in future there will be any issue for H1B extension.
    Thanks

    • Anil Gupta   14 Mar, 19 at 7:57 am

      You have neither mentioned the EB category for your GC nor the country of birth. I cannot estimate without enough information.


      • sorry

        EB2 India

        • Anil Gupta   14 Mar, 19 at 7:03 pm

          It will take about 1-2 (may be more) years easily for EB2 India to reach 19 Nov 2009.


          • Hi Anil , We are in same situation . A followup question and trying to seek some advice- Do you recommend downgrading to EB3 ? I am on H4 EAD and is valid through June 2020 . Not sure of H4 EAD’s status at this point. Considering it will go by Dec 2019 when we will be eligible for extension , what are our options really ? Also do you think DF chart for EB2 will move in near future which will give us another opportunity . Thank you in advance for helping with all these questions.

            • Anil Gupta   15 Mar, 19 at 7:35 pm

              I do not understand your situation as you have not mentioned your PD date.
              If your PD date is same, then I have already given my answer earlier and that should be valid for your as well.


          • thanks Anil.


  6. Any idea when can EB3 (I) March 2010 becomes current? Downgraded from EB2 to EB3 TO get EAD (still in process) – trying to get an idea when it can become current. Thanks!

    • Anil Gupta   11 Mar, 19 at 2:59 pm

      At this time, it is difficult to say anything with good confidence. I am waiting for USCIS i485 pending data and then can estimate in a better way.


      • April bulletin moved eb3 i to June 09. I know it doesn’t give any idea about pending 485 but may give a clue as they decided to move even after seeing eb2 to eb3 downgrade numbers. what is your thought?


  7. Hi Anil,

    Thank you for putting together facts into this insightful post and sharing the same. To my discredit I have been somewhat lackadaisical in my GC process and had mostly left it to my company & lawyers which now has come to haunt me.

    To share some back ground:

    Company-A which processed my original GC (I-140 was approved under EB-2 with a PD of 04/02/2012) split owing to corporate re-structuring and I was migrated to the spin-off Company-B. Now the new Company-B is re-filing my GC under the new legal entity. The paralegal handling my case informed me that the PD for my case will retain the original date.

    Appreciate if you could please confirm if this is correct.

    Also, we’ve been putting off purchasing a home and have been renting while GC is pending. We were considering purchasing a small home rather than continue renting if it will be more than a few years before GC else probably go in for the “dream” home if GC is only a couple of years away.

    When would you estimate I would be able to file for i-485 EAD and receive my GC? We understand that anything provided here is ballpark only and will treat as such.

    Thanks again for sharing.

    Best regards,
    Sumit

    • Anil Gupta   11 Mar, 19 at 2:36 pm

      Green card priority date can be ported with approved i140 legally. This is correct.

      As per my estimation, your 2012 PD date will take at-least 10 years to be current unless the immigration law is changed.
      So, if you want to move in to “Dream home”, move in now without waiting for GC and losing prime time of your life.


  8. Hi Anil,

    My PD is August 19th 2010 EB3 India. Any idea when it might be current.

    Thanks

    • Anil Gupta   7 Mar, 19 at 10:31 am

      It is difficult to predict but as per my estimate, it will take at-least another 3 years for your Aug 19, 2010 date to get current.


      • Thanks Anil for the reply. Do you think Dates for Filing chart might be current in the first quarter 2020 and can expect EAD ? Since they are current till April 1st 2010 in JAN 19 bulletin.

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