Good News – Charles Oppenheim has shared in DOS open forum with lawyers that EB2 and EB3 India dates will take extremely long jumps in July 2021 visa bulletin:
EB2 India Final Action: 1 June 2011
EB3 India Final Action: 1 Jan 2013
Stay tuned and we will update this page if we hear more information.
This article will discuss:
- July 2021 Visa Bulletin Predictions
- Visa Bulletin Prediction App (Next 12 months)
- USCIS GC Wastage
- EB2 India Green Card Wait Time
- How to Get Green Card Fast?
July 2021 Visa Bulletin Predictions
|India||Final Action||Date of Filing (Not available to use)|
|EB2||1 June 2011 (as per Charles)||1 Aug 2011|
|EB3||1 Jan 2013 (as per Charles)||1 Jan 2014|
- EB2 and EB3 ‘final action’ to move forward.
- EB2 and EB3 ‘Date of filing’ dates should stay the same and USCIS will most probably keep the ‘DOF filing’ chart closed until Sep 2021.
- For people whose PD date just got current in the EB2 DOF chart, they should wait to see if USCIS opens this chart for use. The chances are low until Oct 2021 but it is an indication that you should be ready with your i485 documents to file fast preferably in the first week itself.
The estimations are based on the number of i140’s approved during that period and family-based GC spillover of 120k green cards to the employment queue in Oct 2020.
The biggest factor in the predictions is how many people actually file EB2 to EB3 downgrades and how many get their EB3 i140 approved within the next 12 months. Once an i140 is approved, USCIS counts it as a possible candidate and hence has to adjust the Visa bulletin dates accordingly.
All our calculations are based on the fact that at least 50-60% of the EB2 waitlist will convert to EB3 sooner or later using either regular processing or premium processing.
Visa Bulletin Prediction App (Next 12 months)
We have created an artificial intelligence app that tries to count the visa numbers based on publicly available i140 data from USCIS and then mimics the per month visa allocation based on various factors.
Visa Bulletin Predictions App >
This helps us get estimated dates and projected path of VB dates based on spillovers shown as EB2 FAPD (EB2 Final Action prediction) and EB3 FAPD (EB3 Final Action Prediction).
Spillovers happen in this order:
- EB4 and EB5 extra green cards are given to EB1.
- EB1’s unused GC numbers are given to EB2 ROW (The rest of the world).
- EB2’s ROW is shared horizontally with backlogged countries like India and China. The most backlogged country gets the most GCs as per the best understanding.
- EB3 ROW is supposed to get unused GC from EB2 which is almost impossible since EB2 India and China have huge backlogs.
- EB3 does not spill over to anyone as per our understanding.
In a nutshell, this is the funnel for spillovers within employment based categories:
Unused EB4+EB5 => EB1 ROW => Unused EB1 => EB2 ROW => EB2 Backlogged (more backlogged first) => EB3 ROW => EB3 Backlogged (more backlogged first)
If you want to understand how this whole setup works, head over to HappySchools blog who has explained spillover sharing details within EB categories in a really simple way.
Charles Oppenheim Summary
US department of state has started LIVE YouTube discussions with Charles Oppenheim as a welcome step to keep immigrants informed about what to expect in the visa bulletins.
Charles expects that employment-based (EB) green card categories will receive another set of spillover in Oct 2021 and will be much more than we got in Oct 2020.
- Charles expects about 290k GC to be available for EB in Oct 2021 which will be a spillover of about 150k GCs.
- Approx 262k Green cards were made available to the EB category in Oct 2020. A spillover of about 122k GCs.
- He expects the ‘Date of filling’ dates will be reached in the ‘Final action’ chart by Sep 2021.
- USCIS tries to use all available GCs as much as possible. Their usage rate is 95% for the EB category which means that only about 5% of the total is wasted every year.
Open video in new Window >
We did witness very strong movement in EB3 India ‘date of filing’ dates during Oct as demand was low for EB3. Now that most and probably 70% of EB2 Indians have filed their downgrade application, the dates of EB2 and EB3 should move forward considerably in the upcoming months.
The most important factor here for EB 2 movement will be the EB1 dates remaining current. EB1 spills over to EB2 and that makes a big difference.
We will keep updating this page with new Charles Oppenheim videos and adjust our predictions based on each new bulletin.
Sep 2021 Prediction (End of fiscal year 2021)
These are the dates that am22tech thinks will be in Sep 2021 visa bulletin based on Artificial Intelligence projections.
|India||Final Action||Date of Filing (Not available to use)|
|EB2||8 Aug 2011||1 Nov 2011|
|EB3||26 July 2013||1 Jan 2014|
Oct 2021 Prediction (Start of fiscal year 2022)
These are the dates that am22tech thinks will be in Oct 2021 visa bulletin.
Given the current situation of COVID and US embassy closures around the world, the chances are good that more than 150k GC numbers may spill over in 2021. Stay tuned as we update this page regularly.
|India||Final Action||Date of Filing (Will be available to use)|
|EB2||26 Oct 2011||1 Jan 2015|
|EB3||24 May 2014||1 Jan 2016|
The Indian EB2 and EB3 should see a lot of aggressive movement starting Oct 2021 as all other country queues might be cleared and the chances of Indians getting the most of the spillover are extremely high.
USCIS GC Wastage
David Bier from the CATO institute has projected that USCIS might be on the way to waste most of the Oct 2020 spillover if not all, based on their Oct-Dec 2020 i485 processing data.
This file shows the number of i485 filed in the first quarter of 2021 is about 87k which should include EB2 to EB3 downgrades and the dependent family members.
Although there cannot be any concrete conclusion drawn for the number of EB2 to EB3 downgrades with this raw data but it seems that less than 30% of people have filed their EB2 to EB3 downgrades given the low number of i485s received by USCIS.
Note that our hypothesis can be wrong but the number of i485 applications received is lower than approved i140 in the EB2 category which forces us to think that most people have not jumped on to EB3.
- There are approximately 192k Indians (including family) people waiting in the EB2 queue from 1 Jan 2011 to 1 Jan 2015. Most of them were expected to file the downgrade as their dates were current in the EB3 DOF chart.
- It is also possible that since USCIS sent receipts for Oct 2020 filings in Jan 2021, these numbers have not been counted at all in this report. We will update this page once the next quarterly report is shared by USCIS.
If the GC numbers are wasted, it will be inhumane and will affect Indian nationals’ disproportionality as they are the only ones bearing the most backlogged employment-based category at this time.
On the other hand, the State department’s Charles Oppenheim is regularly moving the Visa bulletin ahead hoping that USCIS will be able to use all or most of the spillover. We do not know if USCIS and DOS are talking to each other on monthly updates with respect to how much they can achieve by Sep 2021 end.
As per the law, if USCIS does not use up all GC numbers, they will be wasted and may trigger the slow or retrogression of VB dates for Indians pretty soon.
The good news is that Greg Siskind is ready to file a lawsuit to avoid this wastage of Green cards just because USCIS does not have the capacity to process them within the given timelines. Our opinion on whether you should join the Green card lawsuit or not.
Positive VB Movements
- At this time, the USCIS is probably not counting the EB2 to EB3 downgrades that were filed in Oct 2020 since most of their EB3 i140 has not been approved yet.
- We think that once the EB3 i140 approvals are available, the EB3 queue will slow down and that should start happening from Sep/Oct 2021 visa bulletins keeping in mind the i140 processing time.
Oct 2021 to Sep 2022 will be the golden period and maybe a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for Indians if the spillover happens.
Estimate My Green Card Date
You can estimate your own green card date based on the same AI algorithm which we use for predicting visa bulletins.
- Visit the My Green Card Estimate App here.
- Enter your country of birth and employment-based GC category. You can leave the options as default.
- Click the ‘Estimate My GC Date‘ button and see the visa bulletin that may get you the Green card.
This is how the estimated values look like.
This will help you make a decision with respect to filing EB2 to EB3 downgrade and collecting documents for filing i485 if you have a good chance of getting current in near future.
Many people would need the NABC (non-availability of birth certificate) to file the i-485 application and am22tech is helping with it for a small fee.
Use coupon code
DWHF5RQ6 to get a $29.99 discount on the am22tech’s NABC certificate service.
Family based to Employment Based Spillover
There is no clear rule which can define how family-based spillovers are divided among employment-based categories from EB1 to EB5.
The best possible explanation that we could find was on this B3 blog based on their understanding of US immigration laws.
But, then the author was not able to draw a concrete picture or a mathematical formula as to how the final numbers are divided and hence has left the readers to read Charles Oppenheim’s mind.
Our app has merged all the green card dates calculation logic and has tried to find a possible path that future visa bulletins will take. This will change with each new visa bulletin as the new data is made available by USCIS.
Normally, if there are Green Cards left in the EB1 category, the spillover to EB2.
If we look at the last couple of year’s data, the EB1 India itself is backlogged thereby leaving EB2 India with just the basic quota of 2,879 green cards per year.
- If you take an average family size of 3, the total employment-based GC’s would come down to a mere 959.
- With only 959 Green cards issued every year to EB2 India on average from 2017 to 2020, the GC wait times skyrocketed to 151 years as explained below.
- Now, those extra 120k green cards are available between Oct 2020 and Sep 2021, EB1 stands to clear its queue and the chances are very good that EB2 + EB3 India will get about 17k extra Green cards each after sharing it with other backlogged countries.
You should be ready to file i-485 documents if the dates move forward quickly as the window might not stay open for long.
EB2 India Green Card Wait Time
The average waiting time for anyone already in the EB2 Indian queue at least 20 years if their GC date is before Dec 2012 if you ignore the spillover that happened in Oct 2020.
The maximum is expected to be 151 years in EB2 if you file your PERM today and the average is about 40 years for an India-born skilled worker filing their US Green Card PERM.
NOTE: Dependents = Spouse, and Children (less than 21 years of age).
As per USCIS estimates,
- EB1 dependents = 1.4 of primary.
- EB2 dependents = primary numbers.
- EB3 dependents = 1.1 of primary.
EB-1: Extraordinary ability, EB-2: Advanced degrees, EB-3: Bachelor’s degrees
Indian green card queue waiting numbers issued by USCIS.
If the same amount of 2879 Green cards are issued to EB2 India every year from now, which seems like a case without any carryover from other categories, the Indian EB2 skilled worker has a wait of about 151 years.
How to Get Green Card Fast?
Unless the US Immigration law is changed, to remove country-based GC limits with a law like S386, there is no real possibility of any Indian joining the EB2 Green card queue, to get a Green card in his/her lifetime.
#1 US Citizen Child Sponsor
To circumvent this 150-year wait, your Adult US citizen child can sponsor you once he/she turns 21.
This will give you a Green card immediately as there is neither any yearly limit nor any priority date waiting for immediate relatives of US citizens.
#2 EB2 to EB3 Downgrade
India EB2 to EB3 downgrades are possible.