EB2 India Green Card Prediction – Charles Oppenheim (Nov 2021 Bulletin)

EB2 India Predictions for Green card movement. EB3 will stay ahead of EB2. EB3 will not move forward from Jan 2014 in 2022. Retrogression expected.

Written by AM22Tech Team
  AM22Tech Team    Updated  15 Sep, 21


The dates have remained the same for the final action chart in Oct 2021 bulletin as already shared by Mr. Charles in his Aug 2021 video chat.

To add salt to injury, Oppenheim has changed his statement that there will be no retrogression in 2022. They now expect the retrogression to happen as soon as Nov 2021 visa bulletin.

  • This points to the fact that USCIS is on track to waste the next year’s spillover as well (over 100k GC) and they have communicated it to Charles clearly OR
  • There is going to be something in the Congress bill soon that is expected to STOP the spillover completely. Is this due to the new reconciliation bill that’s currently been dicussed? If it does, then its a good news.
  • Also, the date of this new bill somehow collides with what Charles has said in his last video about dates seeing any practical forward movement in the second half of the 2022 fiscal year, which would be May 2022 visa bulletin.
  • Mexico and Phillipines will get the Final Action date again which means that horizontal spillover to India and China will be reduced further.

They have very smartly retrogressed the EB3 Indian DOF chart to allow USCIS to open the chart for a couple of months. We anticipate that the DOF may be closed as soon as Nov 2021 and hence you should not take any chances.

Nov, Dec, Jan 2022 Predictions

Best case means USCIS wastes only less than 10% of Green card numbers. The average scenario is when USCIS will not use at least 25% of green cards.

The worst case is when USCIS will lose 50% of Green card numbers forever.

IndiaFinal ActionDate of Filing (Available to use)
EB1CurrentCurrent
EB21 Jan 20128 July 2012
EB31 Oct 20138 Jan 2014
IndiaFinal ActionDate of Filing (Available to use)
EB1CurrentCurrent
EB21 Dec 20118 July 2012
EB31 July 20138 Jan 2014
IndiaFinal ActionDate of Filing (Available to use)
EB1CurrentCurrent
EB21 Dec 20118 July 2012
EB31 Apr 20138 Jan 2014
IndiaFinal ActionDate of Filing (Available to use)
EB1CurrentCurrent
EB222 Jan 20128 July 2012
EB38 Oct 20138 Jan 2014
IndiaFinal ActionDate of Filing (Available to use)
EB1CurrentCurrent
EB21 Mar 20128 July 2012
EB315 July 20138 Jan 2014
IndiaFinal ActionDate of Filing (Available to use)
EB1CurrentCurrent
EB215 Feb 20128 July 2012
EB31 Aug 20138 Jan 2014
IndiaFinal ActionDate of Filing (Available to use)
EB1CurrentCurrent
EB21 Apr 20128 July 2012
EB31 Nov 20138 Jan 2014
IndiaFinal ActionDate of Filing (Available to use)
EB1CurrentCurrent
EB21 Apr 20128 July 2012
EB315 Aug 20138 Jan 2014
IndiaFinal ActionDate of Filing (Available to use)
EB1CurrentCurrent
EB21 Mar 20128 July 2012
EB315 Aug 20138 Jan 2014
  • EB2 ‘final action’ to move forward. EB3 will retrogress and then move slowly (about 1-3 weeks at a time) towards the date of filing which is 8 jan 2014 at this time.
  • EB2 and EB3 ‘Date of filing’ dates should stay the same and USCIS will most probably keep the ‘DOF filing’ chart closed until Sep 2022.
  • If you have already filed your i485 but have not submitted the medicals, we strongly recommend to interfile i693 form and improve your chances of getting Green card earlier than others in the queue.

Charles Oppenheim Summary – 15 Sep Discussion

This summary section is for Oct 2021 visa bulletin video chat.

  • EB3 India Final Action – No forward movement expected in 2022. Date will stay around first week of Jan 2014 till Sep 2022.
  • EB2 India Final Action: may move forward and may reach the DOF dates by end of Sep 2022.
  • USCIS Wastage: Charlie does not say anything explicitly now but it is evident from the visa bulletin that they will waste another set of 100k GCs in 2022 even though they have got 150k extra green cards.
  • Spillover 2022: 290k GC are available for EB in Oct 2021 after a spillover of about 150k GCs. They are also waiting for any Congress bill that may pass soon and block the FB to EB spillover.


Open video in new Window >

Visa Bulletin Prediction App (Next 12 months)

We have created an artificial intelligence app that tries to count the visa numbers based on publicly available i140 data from USCIS and then mimics the per month visa allocation based on various factors.


Visa Bulletin Predictions App >

This helps us get estimated dates and projected path of VB dates based on spillovers shown as EB2 FAPD (EB2 Final Action prediction) and EB3 FAPD (EB3 Final Action Prediction).

Spillovers happen in this order:

  1. EB4 and EB5 extra green cards are given to EB1.
  2. EB1’s unused GC numbers are given to EB2 ROW (The rest of the world).
  3. EB2’s ROW is shared horizontally with backlogged countries like India and China. The most backlogged country gets the most GCs as per the best understanding.
  4. EB3 ROW is supposed to get unused GC from EB2 which is almost impossible since EB2 India and China have huge backlogs.
  5. EB3 does not spill over to anyone as per our understanding.

In a nutshell, this is the funnel for spillovers within employment-based categories:

  • Unused EB4+EB5 ->
  • EB1 ROW ->
  • Unused EB1 ->
  • EB2 ROW ->
  • EB2 Backlogged (most backlogged first) ->
  • EB3 ROW ->
  • EB3 Backlogged (most backlogged first)

If you want to understand how this whole setup works, head over to HappySchools blog who has explained spillover sharing details within EB categories in a really simple way.

Estimate My Green Card Date

You can estimate your own green card date based on the same AI algorithm which we use for predicting visa bulletins.

  1. Visit the My Green Card Estimate App here.
  2. Enter your country of birth and employment-based GC category. You can leave the options as default.
  3. Click the ‘Estimate My GC Date‘ button and see the visa bulletin that may get you the Green card.
Estimate Indian EB2 green card date with spillover
Estimate Indian EB2 green card date with spillover

This is how the estimated values look like.

This will help you make a decision with respect to filing EB2 to EB3 downgrade and collecting documents for filing i485 if you have a good chance of getting current in near future.

Many people would need the NABC (non-availability of birth certificate) to file the i-485 application and am22tech is helping with it for a small fee.

Use coupon code DWHF5RQ6 to get a $29.99 discount on the am22tech’s NABC certificate service.

Estimate my green card date
Estimate my green card date

Family based to Employment Based Spillover

There is no clear rule which can define how family-based spillovers are divided among employment-based categories from EB1 to EB5.

The best possible explanation that we could find was on this B3 blog based on their understanding of US immigration laws.

But, then the author was not able to draw a concrete picture or a mathematical formula as to how the final numbers are divided and hence has left the readers to read Charles Oppenheim’s mind.

Our app has merged all the green card dates calculation logic and has tried to find a possible path that future visa bulletins will take. This will change with each new visa bulletin as the new data is made available by USCIS.

Normally, if there are Green Cards left in the EB1 category, the spillover to EB2.

If we look at the last couple of year’s data, the EB1 India itself is backlogged thereby leaving EB2 India with just the basic quota of 2,879 green cards per year.

  • If you take an average family size of 3, the total employment-based GC’s would come down to a mere 959.
  • With only 959 Green cards issued every year to EB2 India on average from 2017 to 2020, the GC wait times skyrocketed to 151 years as explained below.
  • Now, those extra 120k green cards are available between Oct 2020 and Sep 2021, EB1 stands to clear its queue and the chances are very good that EB2 + EB3 India will get about 17k extra Green cards each after sharing it with other backlogged countries.

You should be ready to file i-485 documents if the dates move forward quickly as the window might not stay open for long.



EB2 EB3 India i-140 numbers
EB2 EB3 India i-140 numbers

EB2 India Green Card Wait Time

The average waiting time for anyone already in the EB2 Indian queue at least 20 years if their GC date is before Dec 2012 if you ignore the spillover that happened in Oct 2020.

The maximum is expected to be 151 years in EB2 if you file your PERM today and the average is about 40 years for an India-born skilled worker filing their US Green Card PERM.

NOTE: Dependents = Spouse, and Children (less than 21 years of age).

As per USCIS estimates,

  • EB1 dependents = 1.4 of primary.
  • EB2 dependents = primary numbers.
  • EB3 dependents = 1.1 of primary.

EB-1: Extraordinary ability, EB-2: Advanced degrees, EB-3: Bachelor’s degrees

Indian green card queue waiting numbers issued by USCIS.

If the same amount of 2879 Green cards are issued to EB2 India every year from now, which seems like a case without any carryover from other categories, the Indian EB2 skilled worker has a wait of about 151 years.

How to Get a Green Card Fast?

Unless the US Immigration law is changed, to remove country-based GC limits with a law like S386, there is no real possibility of any Indian joining the EB2 Green card queue, to get a Green card in his/her lifetime.



#1 US Citizen Child Sponsor

To circumvent this 150-year wait, your Adult US citizen child can sponsor you once he/she turns 21.

This will give you a Green card immediately as there is neither any yearly limit nor any priority date waiting for immediate relatives of US citizens.

#2 EB2 to EB3 Downgrade

India EB2 to EB3 downgrades are possible.




Author

Written by AM22Tech Team
  AM22Tech Team     



Recent discussion on forum

  1. Raj_Dhe
    Raj_Dhe

    hi anil

    my Eb2 PD is june 2010 and i got my EAD last month in EB2.

    Now in this month bulletin the final action dates are moved forward and EB3 final action date is current for my EB2 PD.
    so my current status is EB3 FA date current for my EB2 PD and 5 months behind in EB2 FA date.
    can i downgrade at this moment from eb2 to eb3 while having eb2 EAD in hand? is it a good idea?
    if yes, what is the process and how long it will take?
    please advise


  2. anil_am22
    anil_am22

    I don’t think there is any restriction in filing EB3 i140 at this time as long as your Employer is ready to sponsor it.


  3. bhaskar_mz
    bhaskar_mz

    Hi there,
    My eb2 priority date is August 2015.
    Is there any chance of that being the date of filing in fiscal year 2022, for eb3?
    I am planning to switch job, and the new employer will take time to apply perm. So should I wait in the current job and apply downgrade to eb3 after Oct 2021, if there is any chance?
    Thanks.


  4. Mandeep_Raj
    Mandeep_Raj

    What happens when let’s say EB3 FAD by Sept 21 remains only until 01Dec2012 and doesn’t reach the dates in the filing chart dates, will uscis still move the Dates For Filing chart beyond 01Jan14 in Oct 2021? Won’t the spillover be used to issue GCs to the folks waiting with approved i-485 in the current fiscal year?
    @anil_am22 how does this work? Thanks!


  5. anil_am22
    anil_am22

    The green card will only be issued if the date gets current in FAD.

    If it doesn’t, the pending i485 will stay pending. There is no guarantee of dates movement.

    The last time May 2010 was current was in 2012. Most people filed i485 at that time but then dates moved back and have now reached May 2010 again after about 9 years.

    All this time, those people were just waiting.


  6. Sujeet_Kumar_Singh
    Sujeet_Kumar_Singh

    Also, @anil_am22 , assuming Charlie’s prediction of 135K additional GCs available to EB (spillover from FB) + Eb1 being current + potential EB4 spillovers, what’s your best guestimate of Oct 2021 bulletin for EB2 nd EB3 India? Thanks in advance and I must say your blogs are really helpful.


  7. Mandeep_Raj
    Mandeep_Raj

    @anil_am22 yes, pls respond to Sujeet’s comment when you get a chance. We all want to hear your best estimate of Oct 21 bulletin. Thanks!


  8. SJ60UT
    SJ60UT

    I think @anil_am22 has always been conservative. I like that he is conservative and proven right rather than sounding too ambitious. Honestly, no one knows whats going to happen until Sep 2021.


  9. anil_am22
    anil_am22

    Hi @Mandeep_Raj

    Both Sep 2021 and Oct 2021 visa bulletin estimates are available on this page.

    Please note that these are estimates and can be wrong as pointed by other members that even USCIS does not know the exact numbers.

    So, just use these dates for keeping your i485 documents prepared.

    The dates will change if USCIS does not use the full spillover this year and wastes GC numbers. Nobody can guess that but we have kept a wastage of 10% GCs in calculations even though the 2020 wastage was at 5%.

    This is to make sure that we do a conservative estimate.


  10. Abhishek_Sengupta
    Abhishek_Sengupta

    hi ,

    Is there a chance of May 2018 PD being current in Filling date chart for Oct 2021 bulletin. I am asking as i want to change jobs and don’t want to be left in lurch as dates are being moved.


  11. anil_am22
    anil_am22

    You can try it yourself by adjusting various factors that affect the visa bulletin dates.

    They are now available on this GC estimator app here.

    You will need to enter your PD date and then:

    1. Use default settings or
    2. Change based on your understanding of what will happen in the coming months.

    This will show you the VB predictions as per your selections with the AI algorithm from the app. It tries to mimic the way USCIS allocates GCs between EB2 and EB3.

    This prediction trend will be available for your PD date on the suggestions page once you click ‘estimate my GC date’.

    Scroll down on the estimation results page to see this graph that was generated for your set-up

    This way, you can see the trend based on what you think will happen in Oct 2021 rather than what others believe.


  12. anil_am22
    anil_am22

    Hi @Sujeet_Kumar_Singh and @SJ60UT

    It will be interesting to see how many downgrade and how many get i140 approved.

    I think USCIS will count them and include in their VB projections once EB2 to EB3 i140s are approved.

    At least, i believe so keeping in mind the fast movement in EB3 final action dates in June 2021.


  13. Varun_Menon
    Varun_Menon

    @anil_am22
    As per the current predictions do you see these spillovers cause the PD’s to reach 2019 in 2022? If not then at least in the next few years? Or will folks who have PD’s in 2019 and later be waiting again in backlogs once this phase of spill overs are done?


  14. Nagi_C
    Nagi_C

    I can see per day the number of gc issued
    For ur reference I am attaching a picture as well


  15. Sunny_S999
    Sunny_S999

    I was out of country and only recently got my EB2 I140 approved. Thanks for weighing in, Abdul!


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