EB2 India Green Card Prediction for Nov 2022 Bulletin and beyond

EB2 may reach Dec 2014 again in 2023 due to the extra 60k spillover from Family GCs. Slow movement in EB2 is expected until May 23. EB3 may only reach end of 2013.

Written by AM22Tech Team
  AM22Tech Team    Updated 9 Sep, 22


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Family spillover to employment is 60k GC in FY 2023.

This means a total of 200k GCs will be available for the employment-based category. This is very good news.

In FY 2022 which ends on 30 Sep 2022, USCIS has used all 281k available Green card numbers and has told the court that there are no more EB1, EB2, and EB3 numbers available in the current year.

USCIS has used all available employment based GC numbers in 2022
USCIS has used all available employment-based GC numbers in 2022

This simply means that whosoever did not get the approval will not get it now. The new quota will be activated on 1 Oct 2022 and you may get approved if your date is current as per the Oct bulletin.

Also, USCIS officially says that thousands of i485 applications are still pending from 2010 to 2014:

  • EB2 India: About 40k EB2 India i485 applications are still pending
  • EB3 has about 25k i485 pending from 2012 to 2014.

We are not sure if the bulk of these pending applications are duplicates since most of the people filed downgrades to EB3 and then refiled in EB2 too. USCIS has not clarified this in the court filing.

Will EB2 India reach Dec 2014 by Sep 2023 bulletin?

As predicted by us, EB2 India will move back close to EB3 India and it has happened in the Oct 2022 bulletin.

Usually, they remain close to each other within a 3 months gap and are expected to remain like this until the end of Sep 2023 now.

USCIS has been continuously saying in 2022 that the dates for EB2 should not retrogress and should stay current if they were current in July 2022. But, they changed their stance suddenly in Sep 2022 court filing:

USCIS Estimates Oct 2022 bulletin
USCIS Estimates Oct 2022 bulletin
  • What we take away from this is that somewhere in the 2023 and most probably in May or June 2023 bulletin, the EB2 India dates will start moving forward at a faster pace and will reach December 2014 again.
  • Approximately 60k GCs to EB2 India and about 13k to EB3 India in the 2022 fiscal year out of a total of 281k green card numbers were allocated in the fiscal year 2022.

Will 60k new Family to Employment Spillover Help EB2 India?

Yes, 60k additional GC numbers will help EB2 India.

This spillover:

  • It will be distributed equally among all employment-based categories and will benefit the EB3 India movement.
  • EB2 India may still not see much movement as it has a high number of people already waiting in line.
  • People with i485 pending in both EB3 and EB2 will benefit.

Predictions for 2023

Using the same percentage as USCIS allocated for EB2 and EB3 India in 2022, the numbers for 2023 may look like this:

EB2 India predictions 2023 with 60k spillover
EB2 India predictions 2023 with 60k spillover

This probably means that if 43k are allocated to EB2 India, USCIS should be able to approve all currently pending i485 by Aug 2023 and then may be able to the priority date to 2015 for EB2 India.

Remember that all of this is a simple estimation and can go completely wrong if USCIS does not allocate this number to EB2 India or if the number of duplicate EB2 and EB3 filings is lesser than 50%. Even USCIS does not know how many are duplicates at this time.

Stay positive and hope for the best.

We estimate these dates to be possible in the next 12 bulletins:

Predictions – India – Final Action

BulletinDate
Nov 2022May 24, 2012
Dec 2022Jun 26, 2012
Jan 2023Jul 18, 2012
Feb 2023July 13, 2012
Mar 2023Aug 6, 2012
Apr 2023Sep 15, 2012
May 2023Mar 17, 2013
Jun 2023Mar 17, 2013
Jul 2023Mar 17, 2013
Aug 2023Jul 26, 2013
Sep 2023Sep 14, 2013
Oct 2023Sep 24, 2013
Nov 2023Oct 4, 2013
Dec 2023Oct 14, 2013
BulletinDate
Nov 2022May 4, 2012
Dec 2022May 21, 2012
Jan 2023June 23, 2012
Feb 2023July 13, 2012
Mar 2023Jul 30, 2012
Apr 2023Aug 23, 2012
May 2023Sep 12, 2012
Jun 2023Jan 1, 2013
Jul 2023May 5, 2013
Aug 2023Jul 1, 2013
Sep 2023Jun 1, 2014
Oct 2023Nov 1, 2014
Nov 2023Jan 1, 2015
Dec 2023May 18, 2015

If you have already filed your i485 but have not submitted the medicals, we strongly recommend interfiling the i693 form and improving your chances of getting a Green card earlier than others in the queue.

Our predictions are based on these numbers that we think are possible. You can estimate dates based on your own understanding too.

This app uses publicly available i140 data from USCIS and then mimics the per-month visa allocation based on various factors.


Visa Bulletin Predictions App >

The employment spillovers happen in this order:

  1. EB4 and EB5 extra green cards are given to EB1.
  2. EB1’s unused GC numbers are given to EB2 ROW (The rest of the world).
  3. EB2’s ROW is shared horizontally with backlogged countries like India and China. The most backlogged country gets the most GCs as per the best understanding.
  4. EB3 ROW is supposed to get unused GC from EB2 which is almost impossible since EB2 India and China have huge backlogs.
  5. EB3 does not spill over to anyone as per our understanding.

In a nutshell, this is the funnel for spillovers within employment-based categories:

  • Unused EB4+EB5 ->
  • EB1 ROW ->
  • Unused EB1 ->
  • EB2 ROW ->
  • EB2 Backlogged (most backlogged first) ->
  • EB3 ROW ->
  • EB3 Backlogged (most backlogged first)

If you want to understand how this whole setup works, head over to the HappySchools blog who has explained spillover sharing details within EB categories in a really simple way.

Estimate My Green Card Date

You can estimate your own green card date based on the same AI algorithm which we use for predicting visa bulletins.

  1. Visit the My Green Card Estimate App here.
  2. Enter your country of birth and employment-based GC category. You can leave the options as default.
  3. Click the ‘Estimate My GC Date‘ button and see the visa bulletin that may get you the Green card.
Estimate Indian EB2 green card date with spillover
Estimate Indian EB2 green card date with spillover

This is what the estimated values look like.



This will help you make a decision with respect to filing EB2 to EB3 downgrade and collecting documents for filing i485 if you have a good chance of getting current in near future.

Many people would need the NABC (non-availability of birth certificate) to file the i-485 application and am22tech is helping with it for a small fee.

Use the coupon code DWHF5RQ6 to get a $29.99 discount on the am22tech’s NABC certificate service.

Estimate my green card date
Estimate my green card date

You should be ready to file i-485 documents if the dates move forward quickly as the window might not stay open for long.

How to Get a Green Card Fast?

Unless the US Immigration law is changed, to remove country-based GC limits with a law like S386, there is no real possibility of any Indian joining the EB2 Green card queue, to get a Green card in his/her lifetime.

#1 US Citizen Child Sponsor

To circumvent this 150-year wait, your Adult US citizen child can sponsor you once he/she turns 21.

This will give you a Green card immediately as there is neither any yearly limit nor any priority date waiting for immediate relatives of US citizens.

#2 EB2 to EB3 Downgrade



India EB2 to EB3 downgrades are possible.




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Written by AM22Tech Team
  AM22Tech Team     



Recent discussion on forum

  1. abdul_molla
    abdul_molla

    Your app cant predict the dates accurately, because USICS always acts in a different way. So far, I haven’t see any time your app predicted, it’s not your app fault, but USICS methods.


  2. AM22Tech_Admin
    AM22Tech_Admin

    Hi @abdul_molla

    Thanks for the feedback. It happens as USCIS uses manual method and probably moves dates based on political and other factors that are out of control.

    They also probably hold the dates based on their assumptions about how many ROW (rest of world) numbers are needed which is just a wild speculation.

    If they go by actual i140 numbers, the app prediction will probably be a lot closer to reality.


  3. manoj010768
    manoj010768

    It is working. But it gives earlier date when I put 50% wastage and a later date when I put 25% wastage. I don’t understand why


  4. AM22Tech_Admin
    AM22Tech_Admin

    It happens because if there is less wastage, then EB2 may get more GCs than EB3.

    1. EB2 gets more spillover as a whole as it gets it from EB1 (and eb1 gets it from EB 4). So, overall, EB2 gets a big chunk.
    2. EB3 has a very low chance of getting any spillover as it only gets it from EB2. Since EB2 is already so much backlogged, it may never send any spill to EB3.

    So, if there is less wastage overall, the EB2 will win in the long run.


  5. manoj010768
    manoj010768

    I think I didn’t put it correctly perhaps. What I meant was when the wastage is 50% it shows my pd in 2014 as reachable in Aug 2022 but if I put it as 25% wastage then it shows it reachable in May 2023. Surely with less wastage it should reach earlier right? Or am I missing something?


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