EB2 India Green Card Prediction – Charles Oppenheim (Jan 2022 Bulletin)

EB2 India Predictions for Green card movement. EB2 is now ahead of EB3. EB3 may not reach Jan 2014 in 2022. Retrogression in EB2 expected.

Written by AM22Tech Team
  AM22Tech Team    Updated 23 Nov, 21


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EB2 is now moving faster than EB3 India in Dec 2021 visa bulletin. This is actually a result of the weird US immigration which intentionally plays the “see-saw” game with applicants.

As per a recent tweet by David Bier, it seems USCIS does not know how to count unique i140s. This probably means that are now counting the same people twice and hence keeping EB3 India backlogged.

What this may also mean is that once they are able to find (maybe after a year or a quarter – only USCIS knows) that people in EB3 have already got GC using EB2 queue, the EB3 queue may be moved forward and may take a good jump.

If we go by this logic, both EB2 and EB3 should stay close to each other within 3 months’ difference.

We believe that this may happen in the second half of the fiscal year i.e. after April 2022.

  • Charlie showcases his PowerPoint presentation with the assumption of EB3 ROW demand for 55k Green card numbers which seems a bit high keeping in mind the last year’s demand.
  • Our algorithm is still projecting a forward movement in both EB2 and EB3 India with the spillover in Oct 2021. This means that visa bulletin should see movement forward upto 2014 after April 2022 unless USCIS decides to waste a large number of Green cards.
  • Charlie said that there are 280k EB numbers available. USCIS has people both in EB2 and EB3 at this time and as they approve EB2 India Green cards, the duplicate EB3 i140 should be removed from their count and hence push the EB3 dates forward.

Notably, Oppenheim changed his stand suddenly in Sep 2021 that there will be no retrogression in 2022 which he was confident that cannot happen at least until Sep 2022.

Predictions for 2022

Best case means USCIS wastes only less than 10% of Green card numbers. The average scenario is when USCIS will not use at least 25% of green cards.

The worst case is when USCIS will lose 50% of Green card numbers forever.

BulletinDate
Jan 2022Apr 21, 2012
Feb 2022Jul 30, 2012
Mar 2022Sep 30, 2012
Apr 2022Sep 30, 2012
May 2022Mar 10, 2013
Jun 2022Jul 11, 2013
Jul 2022Oct 16, 2013
Aug 2022Dec 31, 2013
Sep 2022Mar 3, 2014
Oct 2022Mar 8, 2014
Nov 2022Mar 12, 2014
Dec 2022Mar 16, 2014
Jan 2023Mar 20, 2014
BulletinDate
Jan 2022Jun 14, 2012
Feb 2022Jul 27, 2012
Mar 2022Sep 11, 2012
Apr 2022Dec 15, 2012
May 2022Feb 10, 2013
Jun 2022Mar 19, 2013
Jul 2022May 18, 2013
Aug 2022Jul 19, 2013
Sep 2022Sep 20, 2013
Oct 2022Sep 25, 2013
Nov 2022Sep 30, 2013
Dec 2022Oct 5, 2013
Jan 2023Oct 10, 2013
Feb 2023Oct 15, 2013
  • EB2 ‘final action’ to move forward. EB3 will retrogress and then move slowly (about 1-3 weeks at a time) towards the date of filing which is 8 jan 2014 at this time.
  • EB2 and EB3 ‘Date of filing’ dates should stay the same and USCIS will most probably keep the ‘DOF filing’ chart closed until Sep 2022.
  • If you have already filed your i485 but have not submitted the medicals, we strongly recommend to interfile i693 form and improve your chances of getting Green card earlier than others in the queue.

Our predictions are based on these numbers that we think are possible. You can estimate dates based on your own understanding too.

Visa bulletin India predictions Jan 2022
Visa bulletin India predictions Jan 2022

Charles Oppenheim Summary – 26 Oct Discussion

This summary section is for Nov 2021 visa bulletin video chat.

  • EB3 India Final Action – No forward movement expected in 2022 unless the estimated EB3 ROW demand is low. They will take decision in later part of the year.
  • EB2 India Final Action: may move forward and may reach the DOF dates by end of Sep 2022.
  • USCIS Wastage: Charlie does not say anything explicitly now but it is evident from the visa bulletin that they will waste another set of 100k GCs in 2022 even though they have got 140k extra green cards.
  • Spillover 2022: 280k GC are available for EB in Oct 2021. They may also wait for any Congress bill that may pass soon and block the FB to EB spillover.


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Visa Bulletin Prediction App (Next 12 months)

We have created an artificial intelligence app that tries to count the visa numbers based on publicly available i140 data from USCIS and then mimics the per month visa allocation based on various factors.


Visa Bulletin Predictions App >

This helps us get estimated dates and projected path of VB dates based on spillovers shown as EB2 FAPD (EB2 Final Action prediction) and EB3 FAPD (EB3 Final Action Prediction).

Spillovers happen in this order:

  1. EB4 and EB5 extra green cards are given to EB1.
  2. EB1’s unused GC numbers are given to EB2 ROW (The rest of the world).
  3. EB2’s ROW is shared horizontally with backlogged countries like India and China. The most backlogged country gets the most GCs as per the best understanding.
  4. EB3 ROW is supposed to get unused GC from EB2 which is almost impossible since EB2 India and China have huge backlogs.
  5. EB3 does not spill over to anyone as per our understanding.

In a nutshell, this is the funnel for spillovers within employment-based categories:

  • Unused EB4+EB5 ->
  • EB1 ROW ->
  • Unused EB1 ->
  • EB2 ROW ->
  • EB2 Backlogged (most backlogged first) ->
  • EB3 ROW ->
  • EB3 Backlogged (most backlogged first)

If you want to understand how this whole setup works, head over to HappySchools blog who has explained spillover sharing details within EB categories in a really simple way.

Estimate My Green Card Date

You can estimate your own green card date based on the same AI algorithm which we use for predicting visa bulletins.

  1. Visit the My Green Card Estimate App here.
  2. Enter your country of birth and employment-based GC category. You can leave the options as default.
  3. Click the ‘Estimate My GC Date‘ button and see the visa bulletin that may get you the Green card.
Estimate Indian EB2 green card date with spillover
Estimate Indian EB2 green card date with spillover

This is how the estimated values look like.

This will help you make a decision with respect to filing EB2 to EB3 downgrade and collecting documents for filing i485 if you have a good chance of getting current in near future.

Many people would need the NABC (non-availability of birth certificate) to file the i-485 application and am22tech is helping with it for a small fee.

Use coupon code DWHF5RQ6 to get a $29.99 discount on the am22tech’s NABC certificate service.

Estimate my green card date
Estimate my green card date

Family based to Employment Based Spillover

There is no clear rule which can define how family-based spillovers are divided among employment-based categories from EB1 to EB5.

The best possible explanation that we could find was on this B3 blog based on their understanding of US immigration laws.

But, then the author was not able to draw a concrete picture or a mathematical formula as to how the final numbers are divided and hence has left the readers to read Charles Oppenheim’s mind.



Our app has merged all the green card dates calculation logic and has tried to find a possible path that future visa bulletins will take. This will change with each new visa bulletin as the new data is made available by USCIS.

Normally, if there are Green Cards left in the EB1 category, the spillover to EB2.

If we look at the last couple of year’s data, the EB1 India itself is backlogged thereby leaving EB2 India with just the basic quota of 2,879 green cards per year.

  • If you take an average family size of 3, the total employment-based GC’s would come down to a mere 959.
  • With only 959 Green cards issued every year to EB2 India on average from 2017 to 2020, the GC wait times skyrocketed to 151 years as explained below.
  • Now, those extra 120k green cards are available between Oct 2020 and Sep 2021, EB1 stands to clear its queue and the chances are very good that EB2 + EB3 India will get about 17k extra Green cards each after sharing it with other backlogged countries.

You should be ready to file i-485 documents if the dates move forward quickly as the window might not stay open for long.

EB2 EB3 India i-140 numbers
EB2 EB3 India i-140 numbers

EB2 India Green Card Wait Time

The average waiting time for anyone already in the EB2 Indian queue at least 20 years if their GC date is before Dec 2012 if you ignore the spillover that happened in Oct 2020.

The maximum is expected to be 151 years in EB2 if you file your PERM today and the average is about 40 years for an India-born skilled worker filing their US Green Card PERM.

NOTE: Dependents = Spouse, and Children (less than 21 years of age).

As per USCIS estimates,

  • EB1 dependents = 1.4 of primary.
  • EB2 dependents = primary numbers.
  • EB3 dependents = 1.1 of primary.

EB-1: Extraordinary ability, EB-2: Advanced degrees, EB-3: Bachelor’s degrees



Indian green card queue waiting numbers issued by USCIS.

If the same amount of 2879 Green cards are issued to EB2 India every year from now, which seems like a case without any carryover from other categories, the Indian EB2 skilled worker has a wait of about 151 years.

How to Get a Green Card Fast?

Unless the US Immigration law is changed, to remove country-based GC limits with a law like S386, there is no real possibility of any Indian joining the EB2 Green card queue, to get a Green card in his/her lifetime.

#1 US Citizen Child Sponsor

To circumvent this 150-year wait, your Adult US citizen child can sponsor you once he/she turns 21.

This will give you a Green card immediately as there is neither any yearly limit nor any priority date waiting for immediate relatives of US citizens.

#2 EB2 to EB3 Downgrade

India EB2 to EB3 downgrades are possible.




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Written by AM22Tech Team
  AM22Tech Team     



Recent discussion on forum

  1. Raj_Dhe
    Raj_Dhe

    hi anil

    my Eb2 PD is june 2010 and i got my EAD last month in EB2.

    Now in this month bulletin the final action dates are moved forward and EB3 final action date is current for my EB2 PD.
    so my current status is EB3 FA date current for my EB2 PD and 5 months behind in EB2 FA date.
    can i downgrade at this moment from eb2 to eb3 while having eb2 EAD in hand? is it a good idea?
    if yes, what is the process and how long it will take?
    please advise


  2. anil_am22
    anil_am22

    I don’t think there is any restriction in filing EB3 i140 at this time as long as your Employer is ready to sponsor it.


  3. bhaskar_mz
    bhaskar_mz

    Hi there,
    My eb2 priority date is August 2015.
    Is there any chance of that being the date of filing in fiscal year 2022, for eb3?
    I am planning to switch job, and the new employer will take time to apply perm. So should I wait in the current job and apply downgrade to eb3 after Oct 2021, if there is any chance?
    Thanks.


  4. Mandeep_Raj
    Mandeep_Raj

    If I were you, i would wait. Don’t miss the boat when it comes onshore on Oct 21.


  5. Mandeep_Raj
    Mandeep_Raj

    What happens when let’s say EB3 FAD by Sept 21 remains only until 01Dec2012 and doesn’t reach the dates in the filing chart dates, will uscis still move the Dates For Filing chart beyond 01Jan14 in Oct 2021? Won’t the spillover be used to issue GCs to the folks waiting with approved i-485 in the current fiscal year?
    @anil_am22 how does this work? Thanks!


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