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USCIS wasted about 25% of Green card numbers in 2021. Will they utilize more this year or will better their record of wasting more this year? Only time will tell.
As per an estimate by David Bier of CATO institute, this 25% wastage is illegal and will result in an additional 11.5 years of waiting time for Indians.
At this time, the visa bulletin is racing ahead in the EB2 queue while EB3 is standing still and watching patiently.
What this may also mean is that once they are able to find (maybe in Oct 2022 bulletin – only USCIS knows) that people in EB3 have already got GC using the EB2 queue, the EB3 queue may be moved forward and may take a good jump.
If we go by this logic, both EB2 and EB3 should stay close to each other within 3 months.
We believe that this may happen in the first half of the fiscal year i.e. after Oct 2022.
At this time, there is no information available to know if there will be any new spillover in Oct 2022 from the family to employment-based category. We are hoping that it may happen as the US embassies around the world are still not working at full capacity and hence may not be able to utilize all family-based GC numbers.
This article will discuss:
Predictions for 2022
The best case means USCIS wastes only less than 10% of Green card numbers. The average scenario is when USCIS will not use at least 25% of green cards.
The worst case is when USCIS will lose 50% of Green card numbers forever.
Predictions – India – Final Action
|Jul 2022||Oct 1, 2012|
|Aug 2022||Jul 29, 2013|
|Sep 2022||Feb 8, 2014|
|Oct 2022||Mar 26, 2014|
|Nov 2022||May 13, 2014|
|Dec 2022||Jun 28, 2014|
|Jan 2023||Aug 15, 2014|
|Feb 2023||Sep 30, 2014|
|Mar 2023||Nov 18, 2014|
|Apr 2023||Jan 4, 2015|
|May 2023||Feb 18, 2015|
|Jun 2023||Apr 8, 2015|
|Jul 2023||May 7, 2015|
|Jul 2022||Oct 17, 2014|
|Aug 2022||Nov 29, 2014|
|Sep 2022||Jan 13, 2015|
|Oct 2022||Jan 22, 2015|
|Nov 2022||Jan 31, 2015|
|Dec 2022||Feb 10, 2015|
|Jan 2023||Feb 19, 2015|
|Feb 2023||Feb 28, 2015|
|Mar 2023||Mar 10, 2015|
|Apr 2023||Mar 19, 2015|
|May 2023||Mar 28, 2015|
|Jun 2023||Apr 7, 2015|
|Jul 2023||Apr 16, 2015|
|Aug 2023||Apr 26, 2015|
If you have already filed your i485 but have not submitted the medicals, we strongly recommend interfiling the i693 form and improving your chances of getting a Green card earlier than others in the queue.
Our predictions are based on these numbers that we think are possible. You can estimate dates based on your own understanding too.
Visa Bulletin Prediction App (Next 12 months)
We have created an artificial intelligence app that tries to count the visa numbers based on publicly available i140 data from USCIS and then mimics the per month visa allocation based on various factors.
Visa Bulletin Predictions App >
This helps us get estimated dates and projected path of VB dates based on spillovers shown as EB2 FAPD (EB2 Final Action prediction) and EB3 FAPD (EB3 Final Action Prediction).
Spillovers happen in this order:
- EB4 and EB5 extra green cards are given to EB1.
- EB1’s unused GC numbers are given to EB2 ROW (The rest of the world).
- EB2’s ROW is shared horizontally with backlogged countries like India and China. The most backlogged country gets the most GCs as per the best understanding.
- EB3 ROW is supposed to get unused GC from EB2 which is almost impossible since EB2 India and China have huge backlogs.
- EB3 does not spill over to anyone as per our understanding.
In a nutshell, this is the funnel for spillovers within employment-based categories:
- Unused EB4+EB5 ->
- EB1 ROW ->
- Unused EB1 ->
- EB2 ROW ->
- EB2 Backlogged (most backlogged first) ->
- EB3 ROW ->
- EB3 Backlogged (most backlogged first)
If you want to understand how this whole setup works, head over to the HappySchools blog who has explained spillover sharing details within EB categories in a really simple way.
Estimate My Green Card Date
You can estimate your own green card date based on the same AI algorithm which we use for predicting visa bulletins.
- Visit the My Green Card Estimate App here.
- Enter your country of birth and employment-based GC category. You can leave the options as default.
- Click the ‘Estimate My GC Date‘ button and see the visa bulletin that may get you the Green card.
This is what the estimated values look like.
This will help you make a decision with respect to filing EB2 to EB3 downgrade and collecting documents for filing i485 if you have a good chance of getting current in near future.
Many people would need the NABC (non-availability of birth certificate) to file the i-485 application and am22tech is helping with it for a small fee.
Use the coupon code
DWHF5RQ6 to get a $29.99 discount on the am22tech’s NABC certificate service.
Family-based to Employment-Based Spillover
There is no clear rule which can define how family-based spillovers are divided among employment-based categories from EB1 to EB5.
The best possible explanation that we could find was on this B3 blog based on their understanding of US immigration laws.
But, then the author was not able to draw a concrete picture or a mathematical formula as to how the final numbers are divided and hence has left the readers to read Charles Oppenheim’s mind.
Our app has merged all the green card dates calculation logic and has tried to find a possible path that future visa bulletins will take. This will change with each new visa bulletin as the new data is made available by USCIS.
Normally, if there are Green Cards left in the EB1 category, the spillover to EB2.
If we look at the last couple of years’ data, the EB1 India itself is backlogged thereby leaving EB2 India with just the basic quota of 2,879 green cards per year.
- If you take an average family size of 3, the total employment-based GCs would come down to a mere 959.
- With only 959 Green cards issued every year to EB2 India on average from 2017 to 2020, the GC wait times skyrocketed to 151 years as explained below.
- Now, those extra 120k green cards are available between Oct 2020 and Sep 2021, EB1 stands to clear its queue and the chances are very good that EB2 + EB3 India will get about 17k extra Green cards each after sharing it with other backlogged countries.
You should be ready to file i-485 documents if the dates move forward quickly as the window might not stay open for long.
How to Get a Green Card Fast?
Unless the US Immigration law is changed, to remove country-based GC limits with a law like S386, there is no real possibility of any Indian joining the EB2 Green card queue, to get a Green card in his/her lifetime.
#1 US Citizen Child Sponsor
To circumvent this 150-year wait, your Adult US citizen child can sponsor you once he/she turns 21.
This will give you a Green card immediately as there is neither any yearly limit nor any priority date waiting for immediate relatives of US citizens.
#2 EB2 to EB3 Downgrade
India EB2 to EB3 downgrades are possible.