EB2 India GC Wait 20 yrs Average, 151 Yrs Worst Case

EB2 India Predictions for Green card is average of 20 years with worst case as 151 years wait time. 2879 GC issued to EB2 India in 2017-18 counted separately for each person.

Written by Anil Gupta
  By Anil Gupta          Updated  15 Aug, 19

  134    


EB2 Priority Date Sep 2019 – Employment Based

EB1 India has been moved to ‘Unauthorized’ status in Sep while it was at 1-Jan-15 in Aug 2019. Unauthorized means that there are no more Green card numbers available for issuing to pending i485 applications.

EB3 moves back again by 6 months.

Check next visa bulletin predictions for EB2 India collected from Charles Oppenheim.

AugustDate of FilingFinal Action
EB1 India1 Oct 17 (No change)U (No GC available)
EB2 India1 Jun 09 (No Change)8 May 09 (+6 days)
EB3 India1 Apr 10 (No Change)1 Jul 05 (-6 months)

USCIS has stopped the use of ‘Date of filing’ chart in February 2019 Visa Bulletin.

EB2 India Predictions Green Card Wait Time

If your employment based green card priority date is July 2009, you have already waited for close to 10 years at this time. The date is NOT expected to be current anytime in near 2-3 years.

This makes the waiting time for anyone already in the EB2 Indian queue at-least 20 years. The maximum is expected to be 151 years and average is about 40 years for an India born skilled worker filing their US Green Card PERMtoday in 2018.

Indians waiting for GC Priority Date in 2019

IndiaEB-1EB-2EB-3
Primary34,824216,68454,892
Dependents48,754216,68460,381
Total83,578433,368115,273
GC Issued 201713,0822,8796,641
Projected Wait6 Yrs151 Yrs17 Yrs

NOTE: Dependents = Spouse and Children (less than 21 years age). As per USCIS estimates, EB1 dependents = 1.4 of primary. EB2 dependents = primary numbers, EB3 dependents = 1.1 of primary.

EB-1: Extraordinary ability, EB-2: Advanced degrees, EB-3: Bachelor’s degrees

Source USCIS in May 2018 and travel.state.gov.

Indian green card queue waiting numbers issued by USCIS

Indian green card queue waiting numbers issued by USCIS If the same amount of 2879 Green cards are issued to EB2 India every year from now, which seems like a case without any carryover form other categories, the Indian EB2 skilled worker has a wait of about 151 years (433,368/2,879 = 151 years).

Related: Current USCIS H1B processing time – Updated Daily

Indian EB2 green card wait 151 years Indian EB2 green card wait 151 years

H1B Green card with US born citizen Kid?

Unless the US Immigration law is changed, to remove country based GC limits with law like HR 392, there is NO real possibility of any Indian joining the EB2 Green card queue, to get Green card in his/her lifetime.

To circumvent this 150 year wait, your Adult US citizen child can sponsor you once he/she turns 21. This will give you Green card immediately as there is neither any yearly limit nor any priority date waiting for immediate relatives of US citizens.

India EB2 to EB3 downgrades possible With EB3 Indian GC queue moving ahead faster than EB2 starting October 2018 visa bulletin, the chances are very high that EB2s will start jumping the ship to EB3 as has been the case with Chinese Queue.

The same EB3 people who moved from EB3 to EB2 to get faster green card will see downward movement now. The US immigration law is crazy!

EB2 Indian can downgrade to EB3 easily.

PERM filings are increasing Year on Year

The PERM filings are stuffing the already backlogged Indian EB2 Green Card queue. Normally, if there are Green Cards left in EB1 category, they spill over to EB2. But, with current trend where EB1 itself is backlogged, EB2 India is just left with 2,879 (as per report for FY 2017).

To add salt to the misery, each employment based green card is counted separately for each H1B or any other immigrant family member.
This means that if you filed Employment based GC, your dependent wife, your dependent kid will be counted too in the EB2 number 2879.

If you take an average family size of 3, the total employment based GC’s would come down to mere 959 !!! With only 959 Green cards issued every year to EB2 India in 2018, do you think that you will ever get to see that prized card in your life time?


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This happens due to the EB3 to EB2 upgrades every year. EB3 becomes eligible for upgrade after 5 years of work experience.

EB2 India Predictions Green card is 20 to 70 years

India Green Card backlog Survey

EB2 is the most preferred category for Indian H1B workers to file Green Card.

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   134 Useful Questions & Answers from comments



  1. Som Gupta
    Som Gupta 12 Jul, 19 at 8:38 am

    Hi Anil
    When could we expect July 11 2010 Eb2 India to become current
    Thanks


  2. Naga G
    Naga G 17 Jun, 19 at 11:57 am

    Hi , Quick prediction question – When do you think the DF chart for EB3-India will open up again ?


    • Naga G
      Naga G 9 Jul, 19 at 3:35 pm

      ? Just checking.


  3. Santosh Asbe
    Santosh Asbe 30 May, 19 at 2:20 pm

    My i140 is approved with date of 20-Dec-18.
    I am confused on Date of filing and Final action date. Which one should i follow to apply AOS.


    • Anil Gupta
      Anil Gupta 30 May, 19 at 9:58 pm

      Date of filing can be used to file i485.


  4. Aggdoc
    Aggdoc 29 May, 19 at 10:43 pm

    Hello! My Eb1-b I140 approved recently. Priority date is Jan 2015. Does this mean I need to wait for more than 4 years to file for 485? :(. Whats the expected trend for Eb-1 (india)? Thank you in advance…


    • Anil Gupta
      Anil Gupta 30 May, 19 at 7:49 am

      Wait times are increasing for EB1 this year. I am not sure how much it will take for your date to get current. You cannot file i485 unless the date is current.


  5. H1BWorker
    H1BWorker 24 May, 19 at 6:06 pm

    My priority date is Sept 2010 (Currently EB2). Should I wait in EB2 or downgrade to EB3?


    • Anil Gupta
      Anil Gupta 24 May, 19 at 6:36 pm

      I suggest to wait for your EB2 date to get getting in EB3 and then take any action.


  6. Bala
    Bala 14 May, 19 at 11:08 pm

    Eb3 July 22 2009 When will it become current or when can I file?


    • Anil Gupta
      Anil Gupta 15 May, 19 at 8:40 am

      I do not know when will July 22, 2009 get current. I know it is frustrating to have waited so long and being so close to green card date.
      But, 22 days can still feel file like a year.


  7. Moiz
    Moiz 6 May, 19 at 12:35 pm

    My priority date is Sept 15th 2011 under EB3, When will it become current or when can I file?


  8. Indra kumar Anandan
    Indra kumar Anandan 25 Apr, 19 at 8:06 pm

    Hi Anil,

    My priority date is May 22, 2009, I changed employer 3 years ago, when do you think I will be current. on EB2.


  9. mohan
    mohan 23 Apr, 19 at 9:53 am

    Hi Anil,
    I am getting married to Indian applying for EB1 visa. What would the wait time be for a green card for me (as a spouse)?


    • Anil Gupta
      Anil Gupta 23 Apr, 19 at 1:04 pm

      EB1 is not a visa. It is a category of Green card priority.
      The green card wait will be same as for your spouse of about 3-4 years.


  10. White Flower
    White Flower 15 Apr, 19 at 12:41 pm

    Your webpage shows lead time of 17yrs for EB3.
    My PD date is EB3 Oct 2014. Do you think it will be current in like 20yrs?, With all people downgrading EB2→EB3


    • Anil Gupta
      Anil Gupta 15 Apr, 19 at 12:42 pm

      The EB3 lead time of 17 years is applicable when there are no downgrades happening from EB2 to EB3.
      The real time will probably balance out between EB2 and EB3 over time as many people would jump over to other stream as and when they get a chance and the date is current in it.


      • White Flower
        White Flower 16 Apr, 19 at 12:04 pm

        So it means if 151 yrs is for EB2 then about 76yrs for both no matter eb2 or eb3 equally divide?


        • Anil Gupta
          Anil Gupta 16 Apr, 19 at 12:21 pm

          You can assume it that way but, its really does not work out that way in real life as more GCs spill over from other categories too.

          But, on a high level, you can assume that each EB2 and EB3 will take at-least 50 years unless the immigration law is changed to remove country based limits.


          • White Flower
            White Flower 17 Apr, 19 at 7:24 am

            Thanks for the reply Anil. It seems hopeless but its a one way street so can’t turn back.


  11. Prasadh Kannan
    Prasadh Kannan 12 Apr, 19 at 4:41 pm

    Hi Anil, My PD is 18-Apr-2009, you think it will be current next month?


    • Anil Gupta
      Anil Gupta 12 Apr, 19 at 4:58 pm

      Chances are good that it might get currrent in EB2.
      Any reason that you have not downgraded your EB2 to EB3 for filing your i485?


      • Prasadh Kannan
        Prasadh Kannan 12 Apr, 19 at 4:59 pm

        Thank you for your comment, Anil.
        I changed my employer several years ago using my EAD and my current employer don’t sponsor GC. I went for interview in November ’18, USCIS kept my case in the local office and asked me to schedule appointment once current. This is probably my best chance otherwise if it goes back to Service center, who knows how long it will take. One retrogress will do!


        • Anil Gupta
          Anil Gupta 12 Apr, 19 at 5:08 pm

          Sounds good. All the best and let us know the result.


  12. remy
    remy 12 Apr, 19 at 2:11 pm

    My priority date sept 17 2010 Eb3 . Stuck with Indian company want to know if i should change jobs or wait for priority date


    • Anil Gupta
      Anil Gupta 12 Apr, 19 at 2:31 pm

      Its your choice.
      It will still take at-least 4-5 years for your priority date to get currrent.


  13. Amrit Singh
    Amrit Singh 9 Apr, 19 at 1:42 am

    my priority date is Aug 2011, when can I expect to be current


    • Anil Gupta
      Anil Gupta 9 Apr, 19 at 5:44 am

      At-least 7-8 years of wait unless the law is changed.


  14. rakesh
    rakesh 7 Apr, 19 at 10:26 am

    my priority date in October 2017 in eb2, when can I expect to be current?


    • Anil Gupta
      Anil Gupta 7 Apr, 19 at 10:37 am

      Probably in year 2119 if the US immigration law is not changed.


  15. Manan
    Manan 7 Apr, 19 at 1:41 am

    My priority date for EB1 India is September 22 2018. When can I expect to be current?


    • Anil Gupta
      Anil Gupta 7 Apr, 19 at 5:28 am

      Your date may get currrent in Nov 2019.


  16. Dinesh
    Dinesh 1 Apr, 19 at 7:32 pm

    Really appreciate your analysis.

    Would like to know your view on this mystery:

    The one thing which confuses me is that how is it that this has become such a big problem in the last year. How is it that in the previous years we never heard of this. It is not possible that the GC queue for EB2 suddenly went from 100,000 or 200,000 to 400000 overnight. Right? What am I missing? Was it always near to this number and no-one paid any attention? We in the EB2 category have been hearing wait times of 5-7 years ever since we filed right uptill last year.

    Did something change in the last couple of years to suddenly cause this huge backlog?


    • Anil Gupta
      Anil Gupta 1 Apr, 19 at 8:36 pm

      The backlog has been adding since 2008. You have heard about it late.


      • Dinesh
        Dinesh 1 Apr, 19 at 8:41 pm

        But isn’t the 150 year wait a new thing we have heard recently in media?


        • Anil Gupta
          Anil Gupta 1 Apr, 19 at 9:42 pm

          The calculation has been done based on current scenario as there are no spillovers received by EB2 as were received earlier from EB1.

          EB1 is also over subscribed now.


          • Dinesh
            Dinesh 2 Apr, 19 at 1:48 am

            So basically this situation has become worse because of the EB1-C(managerial capacity) abuse. So theoretically if EB1-C process came under heavy scrutiny, then this process should revert back to the normal pace as before?


            • Anil Gupta
              Anil Gupta 2 Apr, 19 at 9:17 am

              Even with high scrutiny and high rate of EB1-C rejections, the EB1-C is still over subscribed and backlogged.
              I do not think it is going to ease out in near future.


  17. sam
    sam 29 Mar, 19 at 3:12 pm

    Hi Anil,

    Do you have a post or experience about Employment based Consular processing in India? Documents and process?

    Sam


    • Anil Gupta
      Anil Gupta 29 Mar, 19 at 3:12 pm

      What is this consular processing for? H1B visa or Green card?


  18. Rahul Malhotra
    Rahul Malhotra 28 Mar, 19 at 2:38 pm

    Hi Anil,
    My PD is Feb 2,2011 EB2. Do you think I have some chance in filing EAD by 2021 ?
    Thank you
    Rahul Malhotra


    • Anil Gupta
      Anil Gupta 28 Mar, 19 at 4:00 pm

      I do not think that EB2 India will move fast enough for your file your i485 by 2021. It will take at-least 7-8 years for EB2 Indian to reach Feb 2011 unless the country based Green card limits are removed.



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